Washington– President Donald Trump has considered it the same An effective deal maker above all elseBut it seems that he has reached an impasse with Iran because his tough talk, threats, and even military action have not moved Tehran from its entrenched positions.
with Transfer goals Making it difficult to judge the status of American efforts, Trump and his senior aides insisted that the United States had already won the war and that Iran was prepared to reach an agreement in the wake of… Escalating American threats during A fragile ceasefire.
but Trump backed down againHe said on Monday that he had halted plans for the imminent resumption of attacks at the request of Gulf Arab states because “serious negotiations are taking place now, and that, in their opinion, as great leaders and allies, an agreement will be reached, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all countries in the Middle East and beyond.”
Although he said he canceled the strikes scheduled for Tuesday, Trump continued his bluster, saying he had asked military commanders “to be prepared to move forward with a full, large-scale attack on Iran, at any moment, in the event that an acceptable agreement is not reached.” Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for Tehran and Then I backed off.
Despite growing internal unrest, economic paralysis, and the death of many of its leaders, the situation persists There is no evidence that Iran is prepared to meet Trump’s demands – and I rejected many of them a long time ago. In fact, Iran has stuck to this. This has left Trump’s main stated goals unfulfilled: Iran has not yet agreed to give up nuclear weapons. Its nuclear programme Or develop its ballistic missiles, or stop supporting its agents in the region, including in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
The White House on Monday defended the president’s approach, saying that “Trump always favors peace and diplomacy” but would only accept an agreement that puts America first. “President Trump holds all the cards and is wisely keeping all options on the table to ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon,” White House spokeswoman Olivia Wells said in a statement to The Associated Press.
Crucially, Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping lane vital to global oil supplies, even as the US military imposes a blockade on Iranian ports. the Wild shifts in the global energy market That followed Raising gasoline pricesWhich harms American consumers and causes potential problems for Trump’s Republican Party before the midterm congressional elections in November.
Trump’s playbook of increasing pressure — economically and militarily — to bend foreign governments to his will is not playing out in Iran as it has in Venezuela, Cuba and elsewhere. The oil blockade has put pressure on these two countries And the Trump administration quickly Deposed Venezuelan President Nicolas MaduroBut they do not have an effective bargaining chip like Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.
With the Iran war causing high costs for Americans, Trump’s approval ratings for the economy have declinedAccording to an AP-NORC poll last month, Republicans showed even less confidence in his leadership.
Despite all of Trump’s rhetoric, Iran has not been willing to accept restrictions on any of its policies that amount to more than what it conceded during negotiations to reach a nuclear agreement with world powers during the Obama administration. Trump described it as the “worst agreement ever” negotiated by the United States and withdrew from it in his first term in 2018.
Since the fragile truce in the war took effect last month, Trump has criticized the slow pace of negotiations to reach a permanent agreement.
“For Iran, the clock is ticking, and they better move fast, or there won’t be anything left of them,” Trump wrote on social media on Sunday shortly after his call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Iranian response was quick. “Our armed forces have their fingers on the trigger, while diplomacy is also continuing,” Mohsen Rezaei, a military advisor to Iran’s supreme leader, told state television.
Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group who has witnessed years of fruitless diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, said the longtime rivals do not see themselves as defeated in the latest conflict.
“Since the ceasefire came into force, Washington and Tehran appear to be operating on the assumption that time is on their side: each believes that the blockade and counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz increases costs for the other side, while giving leeway to prepare for a possible resumption of hostilities,” Fayez said.
He added that despite the impact of the US economic pressure campaign, Iranian officials have not reached the threshold of pain “to the point of accepting what they consider to be capitulatory demands.”
David Schenker, a former assistant secretary of state for Middle Eastern affairs in the first Trump administration who now works at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, described the current situation as “stalemate.”
He said Trump likely has “concerns” about returning to a full-blown military conflict, especially because of Gulf Arab states’ concerns about Iranian retaliation and volatility in energy markets, with political implications in the United States.
Rich Goldberg, an Iran hawk and former National Security Council official in both Trump administrations who now works with the think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, insisted that Trump is still operating from a position of strength, including in the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldberg, who has a particular interest in American dominance of the energy sector, said that although reopening the Strait would alleviate the “pain at the pump” felt by many Americans, it is not critical.
“The short-term pain at pumping stations is distracting people from overall U.S. energy dominance,” he said. “This is not a permanent crisis.”