Dvalishvili (21-4-0) is set to make UFC history by attempting a fourth successful title defense in a single calendar year. His first title defense took place in January against Umar Nurmagomedov, which he won by unanimous decision. Dvalishvili’s second defense was a rematch against Sean O’Malley, which he won via third-round submission. He then defended his title for the third time in October against Cory Sandhagen, winning that match by unanimous decision.
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Yan (19-5-0) has turned his fortunes around after his last loss, which came to Dvalishvili in March 2023. He is currently on a three-fight winning streak, including two wins in 2024 and a unanimous decision win against Marcus McGhee in 2025.
Here are the predictions and odds for UFC 323.
Further: Henry Cejudo confirms his retirement from UFC 323: ‘This is it for me’
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan predictions
Sports news: Merab by unanimous decision
Daniel Yanofsky writes: “Has Yan improved his takedown defense (85%) since the last fight? Even against other opponents, they are not on the same level as Merab. Even if injuries may have affected Yan last time, it seems like nothing can stop Merab, especially on the court. Expect the same result here.”
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Action Network: Merab Dvalishvili
Billy Ward writes: “With the champion only two years older than the challenger, it’s also difficult to say that time could be the tie here, as both men are at roughly the same stage of their careers. For all those reasons, the roughly four-to-one odds on “The Machine” retaining his title seem about right.”
Score and statistics: Merab Dvalishvili
Rick Rockwell writes: “You can throw caution to the wind and go for a KO, but I don’t see that happening. Merab wins with defense, timing, pace, and suffocating wrestling. Yan didn’t have an answer for that in 2023, and he won’t have an answer now.”
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UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan date
Merab Dvalishvili will face Petr Yan on Saturday, December 6 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
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TV: ESPN2 (prelims); ESPN PPV (main card)
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Stream: ESPN+, Disney+ (Early Prelims/Prelims) ESPN PPV (Main Card)
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan: TV and streaming information
The early prelims and the preliminary fight between Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan will be available to stream on ESPN+ and Disney+, while the main card will air on ESPN Pay-Per-View.
UFC 323: fight card and odds between Dvalishvili and Yan
Undercard according to ESPN and odds according to BetMGM.
Main card:
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Merab Dvalishvili (-500) against Petr Yan (+340); For the bantamweight title
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Alejandro Pantoja (-265) vs. Joshua Van (+200); For the flyweight title
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Brandon Moreno (+110) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-140); flyweight
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Henry Cejudo (+200) vs. Payton Talbott (-265); Light
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Jan Blachowicz (-140) against Bogdan Guskov (+110); Bantamweight
Preliminaries:
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Grant Dawson (-235) against Manuel Torres (+180); Light
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Chris Duncan (-195) vs. Terrance McKinney (+150); Light
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Maycee Barbero (-180) against Karine Silva (+140); women’s flyweight
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Nazim Sadyjov (+115) against Ziam rates (-145); Light
First preliminaries:
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Marvin Vettori (-120) against Bruno Ferreira (-110); Medium weight
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Edson Barboza (+200) vs. Jalin Turner (-265); Light
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Ibo Aslan (+165) against Iwo Baraniewski (-215); light heavyweight
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Mansur Abdul-Malik (-1000) against Antonio Trocoli (+560); Medium weight
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Muhammad Naimov (+220) against Mairon Santos (+295); featherweight
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Predictions, odds and how to watch Dvalishvili vs. Yan from UFC 323.