President Trump and his administration maintain every day that the United States and Israel’s campaign against Iran is succeeding, and it is doing so in every way possible.
Except in markets and gas stations across America, where motorists seem stunned when they realize this. Retail gas prices have risen almost 30%. from the beginning of 2026.
That was not what they expected in 2026. It is certainly not what they were promised.
But here it is.
Data from GasBuddy puts the average price of gasoline in the United States at $3.643 a gallon on March 13. The AAA average was $3.63 a gallon. The increase in the last two weeks: About 22%.
Related: Goldman Sachs resets oil price target for rest of 2026
Oil prices also continued to skyrocket on March 13 and may go up more next week.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled at $103.14 a barrel on March 13, up 2.7% on the day and 69.5% since December 31.
Light sweet crude oil, the benchmark U.S. crude, finished at $98.71 per 42-gallon barrel, up 3.1% on the day and 8.6% on the week and 72% since Dec. 31, 2025. It hit $99.32 on the day.
If the strait remains blocked, oil prices could rise above $125 next weekaccording to a note by Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital in New York.
Friday’s close was the highest price since June 2022, when oil prices soared in reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and easing of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Unfortunately, the 2026 price shock shows few signs of easing yet because Iran has been defending itself against the United States, Israel and even its neighbors by threatening to stop oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the 22-mile-wide body of water that connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.
About 20% of the world’s crude oil passes through the strait, most of it destined for Asian customers such as China. The safe passage of oil tankers through the Strait is a key element supporting the global economy.
The strait is effectively closed now. Iran is escorting tankers carrying loaded Iranian oil, but tankers carrying oil for, say, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait or Oman, remain anchored. Marine insurers will not insure these ships or their cargoes if they attempt to pass through the strait.
The war between Israel, the United States and Iran has been hurting stocks overall, but energy stocks are mostly up. Exxon Mobil rose 1.7% to $2,156.12.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 0.7% to 6,629. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3% to 46,534, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9% to 22,105.
Related: Iran’s shocking threat to raise oil to $200
Oil prices have soared despite pledges by the United States and International Energy Association member countries to release millions of barrels of oil into global markets in a bid to to cut oil prices. The United States expects to release 172 million barrels of crude oil over the next four months. IEA members plan to release 400 million barrels.