While finishing second would ensure a play-off, Northern Ireland could still have a chance of making the World Cup even if they finish outside the top two thanks to their Nations League group win last year.
The top four Nations League winners who do not finish in the top two in their World Cup qualifying group will earn a place in the play-offs.
Second place is still up for grabs, but let’s talk about the worst-case scenario: Northern Ireland would finish outside the top two when Group A ends in November.
In terms of qualification, Northern Ireland finished 12th among the 14 group winners in the Nations League, meaning they need eight of the 11 teams above them to qualify or have already booked a play-off place.
While eyes have been on all groups throughout the campaign, ultimately there is only one more match for Northern Ireland to keep an eye on.
if he Czech Republic If they beat minnows Gibraltar on Monday 17 November (at the same time as NI face Luxembourg in their final qualifier), O’Neill’s side will be guaranteed a play-off no matter what.
you would expect Germany finish in the top two, and if they don’t, NI would be the team that would benefit in Group A.
England confirmed their qualification for next summer’s tournament with a 5-0 victory against Latvia.
Spain, France, Portugal and Norway All of them are assured of a result among the top two in their respective groups.
At least one of North Macedonia either Welshwho are currently fighting with Belgium for qualification, will finish in the top two of Group J and will be the seventh of the eight teams that Northern Ireland needs to reach the play-offs.
So that leaves the Czech Republic in Group L, which should have enough to beat Gibraltar despite the Faroe Islands clinching second place at the last minute.
Sweden and Romania, along with the team left out of Group J, will be the other teams to benefit from their victories in the Nations League groups.