The weekend features four games that will go a long way toward defining the 12-team playoff field. Teams like No. 10 Texas and No. 11 Oklahoma could see their playoff hopes dashed, while the AFC should start to have some separation.
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Here are our games to watch on Saturday.
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 22 Pitt
Pat Narduzzi is right. Pitt’s playoff hopes don’t hinge much on this game. But Notre Dame does, and the Panthers have been one of the most popular teams in the country.
Pitt has won five straight after back-to-back losses to West Virginia and Louisville. The best win down the stretch is a win over Florida State: Pitt hasn’t been playing a glove. But that’s about to change. After Notre Dame, Pitt has No. 17 Georgia Tech and No. 15 Miami left on the schedule. And even if the Panthers lose 100-0 on Saturday, wins over Georgia Tech and Miami put them in the ACC title game and a shot at the College Football Playoff.
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Freshman Mason Heintschel has been very good since taking over as the starter in place of Eli Holstein. He has thrown for over 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns with just five interceptions. However, Pitt’s QBs are vulnerable to sacks. Heintschel (16), Holstein (9) and Cole Gonzales (1) have been sacked a total of 26 times.
Notre Dame needs to win to make the playoffs and the Panthers are the toughest opponent they have left. After Pitt, Notre Dame has Syracuse and Stanford on the schedule.
A multi-point win over Pitt could also mean Notre Dame could finish 10-2 with all 10 wins by at least two points and both losses by four points combined. Although Pitt and USC are the only ranked teams Notre Dame would have won over, that’s a resume the committee will certainly look favorably on.
No. 24 South Florida in the Navy
We are about to start having some separation in the American Conference. USF and Navy are among five teams tied atop the conference with one loss. Navy has a half-game lead over everyone else at 5-1, but that could disappear with a loss to the Bulls.
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QB Blake Horvath is expected to return to the Midshipmen after missing last week’s game against Notre Dame. To say it’s a big deal would be an understatement. Horvath has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in college football this season. He has rushed 138 times for 926 yards and 13 touchdowns and has also thrown for 1,143 yards on just 107 attempts. He has thrown five picks, but two of them came against North Texas on November 1st.
That UNT game was Navy’s only conference loss of the season.
USF is currently the top-ranked non-energy conference team in the country. The Bulls lost to Memphis on Nov. 1, but are ahead of the Tigers in the standings after Memphis lost 38-32 to Tulane in Week 11. QB Byrum Brown has thrown for 2,203 yards and 19 TDs and also led the team with 705 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Only two players, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza and Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby, have recorded more touchdowns this season.
USF has also scored 48 or more points in five of its last six games and its lowest-scoring game in that span is 31. That could be bad news for a Navy defense that allows six yards per play and allows nearly 27 points per game.
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No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama
The Sooners need to win to have a chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.
Oklahoma is the first team out of the group based on the second set of rankings, but it’s hard to see Oklahoma entering the playoffs at 9-3 or worse. With Missouri and LSU remaining in Norman, the Sooners will be favored in each of their final two games. Alabama is the biggest obstacle.
The offense has slowly gotten back on track after scoring just six points against Texas. OU averaged six yards per play in a 34-26 loss to Ole Miss and had 5.5 yards per play in a 33-27 win over Tennessee. But the Sooners may not be able to settle for field goals against Alabama like they have this season. Oklahoma has attempted at least three field goals in four of its five games this season and has at least two field goal attempts in all but two games. OU will need touchdowns to defeat the Tide.
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Oklahoma’s defense is also fantastic against the run, and Alabama has struggled to run the ball with consistency. Oklahoma allows just 2.5 yards per carry and has allowed four rushing touchdowns all season. Aside from a three-game stretch against Georgia, Vanderbilt and Missouri, where Alabama seemed to have things figured out on the ground, the Tide is now back to being inefficient on the ground. Since that Mizzou win, Alabama has run the ball 96 times for 312 yards.
That puts a lot of pressure on Heisman contender Ty Simpson. He is completing 67% of his passes and has thrown 21 touchdowns with just one interception so far. However, he has turned the ball over in each of Alabama’s last four games.
No. 21 Iowa at No. 17 USC
USC is still in the race for the Big Ten title. But the Trojans need help. And they also need to win.
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Iowa has given up 93 points in six Big Ten games so far this season. That’s the third-best mark in the conference behind Ohio State’s staggering 49 points allowed in six games and Indiana’s 98 points allowed in seven games. Iowa has allowed just 38 points in its two losses; a 20-15 loss to the Hoosiers and that 18-16 loss in the rain to Oregon in Week 11.
Can Iowa’s defense slow down USC’s offense, too? And even if it does, can the offense do enough to spark the upset?
USC’s offense is averaging 7.6 yards per play this season. Quarterback Jayden Maiava is throwing for nearly 15 yards per completion and running back King Miller has rushed for 636 yards on just 80 carries. USC averages 5.8 yards per carry and rushes for over 200 yards per game. Iowa’s entire offense averages just 5.0 yards per play.
The Hawkeyes have yet to throw for more than 200 yards in a game against a power conference opponent. Mark Gronowski completed 10 of 18 passes for 138 yards against Oregon and 66 of those yards came on Iowa’s final drive of the game. Barring multiple turnovers, Iowa’s offense will need its best game of the season.
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No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia
Do Texas’ playoff hopes depend on a win in Athens? Or can the Longhorns sneak into the College Football Playoffs at 9-3? There is a path for three-loss Texas to enter the field, but the Longhorns would likely need another loss from both Vanderbilt and BYU to reach the 12-team bracket.
Georgia’s defensive front overwhelmed the Texas offensive line in a 30-15 victory in 2024. This season, Georgia is not having the pass rush it had in previous seasons. Georgia’s defense had seven sacks of Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning a year ago. This season, Georgia’s entire defense has 11 sacks in nine games.
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That could help minimize one of Texas’ offensive vulnerabilities. Manning was sacked six times in the loss to Florida on Oct. 4 and suffered a combined eight sacks in overtime wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State. It’s no coincidence that Texas has looked better when Manning isn’t taking sacks. He has been sacked four times in the Longhorns’ other six games.
The Longhorns will also need a complete game like the one they played against Oklahoma to have a chance to win. The Kentucky game was a tough slog and the win over Mississippi State required a 17-point comeback just to force overtime. Texas looked fantastic against Vanderbilt… until a fourth quarter that allowed the Commodores a chance to improbably tie the game or take the lead had they recovered a late onside kick.
Georgia’s offense has also averaged at least six yards per play in three of its last five games. A week ago against MSU, Gunner Stockton threw for 264 yards and three touchdowns as the Bulldogs rushed 44 times for 303 yards.
Others to watch
Arizona at No. 25 Cincinnati (-6.5), noon ET, FS1: The Bearcats can’t get caught up looking ahead to visiting BYU in Week 13. Arizona is 6-3 after wins over Colorado and Kansas and hasn’t allowed more than 200 yards since Rocco Becht threw for 288 yards on Sept. 27.
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No. 19 Virginia at Duke (-4.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2: Yes, the Blue Devils are the favorites after their loss to UConn in Week 11. Bettors are clearly not impressed by Virginia as the Cavaliers’ luck ran out in Week 11 against Wake Forest. Quarterback Chandler Morris missed the second half of that game, but all signs point to him being able to play against Duke.
Memphis at East Carolina (-2.5), 4 pm ET, ESPNU: The Pirates are among that group of teams with one more loss than the Americans, while Memphis is the only team with two losses in the conference. ECU has won three straight since losing to Tulane, but those wins came against Tulsa, Temple and Charlotte. A win over Memphis will be huge for East Carolina’s US title hopes.
Boise State at San Diego State (-2.5), 10:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN: Could we see this Mountain West title game again? San Diego State’s hopes of making the College Football Playoff all but disappeared a week ago in a 38-6 loss at Hawaii. The Aztecs are 7-2 overall, but lost those two games by a combined 55 points to the Rainbow Warriors and Washington State. A Boise State win could leave SDSU tied with Hawaii and make it difficult for the Aztecs to reach the MWC title game.