Where will the next 20 billion barrels of the Middle East come from?

Where will the next 20 billion barrels of the Middle East come from?
Where will the next 20 billion barrels of the Middle East come from?

We previously reported that global upstream operators will cut investment for the second consecutive year in 2026, with capital spending expected to fall at least 2% to 3% year-on-year, and more than 5% compared to 2024 levels, as the industry navigates oil prices below $60 a barrel while maintaining focus on long-term resilience. Still, Wood Mackenzie has predicted that operators will continue to add new strategic growth opportunities in various regions around the world. That is, the Middle East and North Africa is scheduled to add at least 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent through the 2030s through licensing rounds and contract negotiations.

Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) launched its first round of oil exploration tenders in more than 17 years in March 2025, with companies expected to bid and open bids in February 2026, covering 22 onshore and offshore blocks to boost production and attract foreign investment after years of instability. The move aligns with Libya’s goal of reaching production of 2 million barrels per day (bpd), a level close to pre-crisis production in 2011. This initiative is considered a historic moment, opening an important and resource-rich market to international energy companies.

Meanwhile, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman and Syria are indeed poised to offer significant new oil drilling opportunities, driven by the construction of export pipelines by Iraq and Oman, Kuwait’s expansion offshore, and the opening of Syria after years of conflict to new investment, signaling significant developments in the Middle East upstream sector. These countries are focusing on field diversification and revitalization, with Iraq and Oman planning a major pipeline from Basra to Duqm and Syria attracting new partners for its redevelopment. Iraq and Oman have a preliminary agreement to build a pipeline from Basra to Duqm, diversifying Iraq’s export routes beyond the Ceyhan pipeline. Oman’s Duqm port will house storage facilities, making it a key export hub, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz choke points.

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Kuwait is expanding offshore drilling and production, with major finds such as the Nokhetha discovery. This is a major offshore oil and gas find by Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) east of Failaka Island, containing estimated reserves of 2.1 billion barrels of light oil and 5.1 trillion cubic feet of gas (about 3.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent). This discovery marked a major milestone in Kuwait’s offshore exploration program, part of a broader strategy to boost national energy security, and subsequent finds like Jaza reinforced these efforts, highlighted by their high-quality, low-emission resources. ADNOC Drilling is expanding into Kuwait and Oman by acquiring a 70% stake in SLB’s (NYSE:SLB) land drilling rig business, securing six rigs in Oman and two in Kuwait, with plans to double that fleet and continue growing in the region through new tenders and acquisitions, marking a significant regional expansion.

Syria is actively reopening to energy investments following the fall of the Assad regime at the end of 2024 and the subsequent easing of international sanctions. The new Syrian government is pursuing an investment-driven recovery model and has signed billions of dollars in deals with foreign companies. The US, EU and UK have eased many economic sanctions, removing a major obstacle for international businesses and allowing Syria to reconnect to the SWIFT international payments system. The Syrian government has established a consolidated energy ministry, plans to build a new 150,000 bpd oil refinery and organizes international oil and gas exhibitions to attract more capital. A consortium of Qatari (UCC Holding), Turkish (Kalyon, Cengiz Energy) and American (Power International) companies signed a landmark $7 billion deal in May 2025 to develop 5 GW of new energy capacity, including solar and gas-fired power plants. Saudi companies have signed deals for new oil and gas developments, including a 500 MW renewable energy project (solar and wind) and a subsidy of 1.65 million barrels of crude oil to stabilize supplies. UAE-based DP World has taken over management of the port of Tartus, improving logistics for energy trade.

Meanwhile, Middle Eastern nations are actively diversifying beyond Chinese influence, seeking large IOCs (International Oil Companies) to invest in energy and infrastructure, driven by economic diversification goals (such as Saudi Vision 2030) and a desire for broader partnerships, leveraging their low-cost energy resources and growing technology sectors, while developing new trade routes such as the “Middle Corridor” to reduce dependence on traditional roads. European and US companies are stepping in, attracted by opportunities in gas, renewables and digital transformation, although challenges remain with complex regulations and governance. In essence, the Middle East is leveraging its energy wealth and strategic location to foster a multipolar partnership model, attracting diverse IOCs to support its ambitious economic diversification and secure new trade routes.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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