Early Monday morning, Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, wrote in a note to clients that he was adding Venezuela “to our list of disturbing developments” that could influence a volatile start to 2026.
By late morning, Yardeni, like others, had watched as the stock market largely ignored the weekend’s events in which the United States captured and arrested Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro.
“The positive response from stocks is fascinating,” Yardeni wrote. “This suggests that the markets are not particularly worried. The market seems to focus on the positive consequences: peace through strength. Perhaps that is what the markets are supporting.”
Wall Street is still assessing the consequences of the US incursion into Venezuela. But at least to start, investors are looking beyond to focus on the themes that have dominated markets throughout 2025 (and even before), with AI trading returning to recovery mode and attention looming on the Federal Reserve and corporate profits.
When asked how the current climate would affect his holdings, Gabelli Funds portfolio manager John Belton Holdings said not much.
“I think that’s why the market is like, quote-unquote, ignoring this situation, at least based on what we know today,” he told Yahoo Finance. “It’s not a big impact on company fundamentals… it’s not a big part of the global economy. I think it’s pretty simple.”
Ben Emons, founder and CIO of FedWatch Advisors, suggested investors might even be treating the timing as a “risk” event.
“2026 begins as a geopolitical year, which could act as a risk catalyst in later periods,” Emons wrote in a note to clients. “It reminds me of 2016, when regime changes like Brexit and Trump’s first election triggered major rallies in commodities, emerging markets and domestic stocks.”
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Not everyone is convinced that the market reaction will remain calm. Peter Tchir of Academy Securities said the biggest risk could come from China, the biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil.
Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, but decades of mismanagement, lack of investment and US sanctions have reduced its production to less than 1% of the world’s supply.
“So far, the administration has only talked about reparations and returning oil rights to American companies. Expect those actions to be fought in court, as China has to protect its own interests or face not only economic losses, but also loss of prestige,” Tchir wrote to his clients.
