July soft red winter wheat (SRW) futures (ZWN26) fell 7 1/4 cents to $5.99 1/4 on Friday and rose 18 1/2 cents during the week. July hard red winter wheat (HRW) futures (KEN26) lost 5 cents to $6.50, but were up 45 cents for the week.
Winter wheat futures markets on Friday experienced some routine profit-taking pressure heading into the weekend. However, it was a good week for the bulls, suggesting further price strength this week.
HRW’s overly dry weather in the U.S., as well as dry conditions in Australia’s wheat regions, are supporting rallies in wheat futures markets. HRW’s forecasts for the US zone also do not look promising. A cold snap over the weekend may produce some damage to HRW’s crop in the western High Plains. Rainfall next week in HRW’s country will remain limited.
News reports say farmers in Argentina are considering a reduction in wheat plantings due to high fertilizer costs, and some are switching to corn or soybeans due to limited profit margins. Meanwhile, Australia’s wheat acreage for the 2026/27 crop is expected to fall to its lowest level in seven years due to low prices and shortages of fertilizer and fuel. Bloomberg reported.
Another bright spot for wheat markets has been the sell-off in the US Dollar Index ($DXY), which hit a six-week low this week. If the dollar continues to depreciate in the coming weeks and months, this would make the price of US wheat more competitive in the world market and would likely provide a boost to US export sales that have been lagging recently.
July corn futures (ZCN26) fell 1/4 cent to $4.57 1/2 on Friday and rose 6 1/2 cents during the week. Corn futures trading has been choppy, but the bulls had the best week, supported by the rally in wheat prices. Last week’s July corn price development suggests the market may have bottomed in the near term as the technical stance has improved.
Corn traders will continue to watch the USDA’s weekly crop progress reports on Monday afternoons. Corn planting in the US Midwest may be slowed in northern regions due to recent heavy rains. However, a drier weather pattern will occur in that area this week.
It appears that the war in the Middle East may be coming to an end (or attempting to), allowing grain market traders to better refocus on their own supply and demand fundamentals in the coming weeks and months.
