With a drop of almost 60% from its peak, has the time finally come to buy Joby Aviation?

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY)a developer of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, closed at a record high of $20.39 per share on August 4, 2025. At that time, Joby impressed the market with its technological advantages, strong partnerships, and clear plans to commercialize its first air taxi flights. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 also caused more investors to return to speculative and higher-growth stocks.

But at the time of writing, Joby stock is trading at less than $9 per share. Let’s see why it lost almost 60% of its value and whether it is worth buying as a contrarian bet in the nascent eVTOL market.

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Joby’s S4 eVTOL carries one pilot and four passengers, travels up to 150 miles on a single charge and reaches a top speed of 200 miles per hour. To reduce drag, it uses single tilt-rotor propellers that alternate between lift and cruise modes. That key difference allows the S4 to travel faster and further than archer aviation‘s (NYSE: ACHR) Midnight, which uses separate propellers for its lift and cruise modes.

Joby, Archer and other eVTOL manufacturers aim to replace conventional helicopters on short-range air taxi routes. Joby has already attracted the attention of prominent investors, including toyota (NYSE: TM), Delta Airlines (NYSE: DAL)and Uber (NYSE: UBER).

Uber, an early investor in Joby, will integrate Joby’s eVTOL rides into its ride-hailing app on its new service, Uber Air, once regulators approve its first commercial flights. Toyota has been increasing its investments in Joby to support the certification and commercialization of those air taxis. Delta, Virgin Atlantic, All Nippon Airways and other airlines plan to include Joby flights in their tickets as premium last-mile “airport-to-home” services.

The global eVTOL market could grow at a CAGR of 36.8% between 2026 and 2034, according to Fortune Business Insights. Assuming Joby stays on top of this booming market, analysts expect its revenue to rise from $53 million in 2025 to $459 million in 2028.

That outlook seems bright, but Joby still hasn’t cleared its two biggest regulatory hurdles. First, it is unclear when the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will approve Type Certification for its first commercial flights. Some analysts expect that to happen late this year or early 2027, but any delay could force them to trim their near-term estimates. Secondly, Joby originally planned to launch its first commercial flights in Dubai later this year. It’s still officially sticking to that timeline, but the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could delay those plans and lead analysts to lower their revenue forecasts for the year.

As Joby faces those challenges, macroeconomic headwinds intensify. Inflation is driving up costs and raising fears that the Federal Reserve will raise rates rather than cut them. It is not yet profitable and its share count has already increased more than 60% since it went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on August 11, 2021. That dilution could accelerate in the coming years as it expands its business.

With a market capitalization of $8.3 billion, Joby stock isn’t cheap: 18 times its 2028 sales. Archer, which faces the same regulatory hurdles, trades at just 8 times its 2028 sales. So any bad news could easily cut Joby stock in half again, and it still wouldn’t be considered a bargain relative to its near-term growth potential.

Joby arguably has a brighter future than Archer and its smaller eVTOL competitors. But without a clearer timeline for its FAA certification and its first commercial flights in Dubai, it’s impossible to say whether it can match Wall Street’s bullish forecasts. I would be willing to nibble on Joby stock at these levels as it remains the “best buy” in the emerging eVTOL market, but I wouldn’t make a larger investment unless it makes significant progress toward those near-term goals.

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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool posts and recommends Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

With a drop of almost 60% from its peak, has the time finally come to buy Joby Aviation? was originally published by The Motley Fool