XRP has tested the $1.50 zone twice before in the last three months. The rally on March 17 reached $1.60 on the SEC/CFTC commodity leaderboard before the Federal Reserve’s rate hold sent the price back to $1.40. The April attempt reached $1.51 before XRP retraced 54% of the weekly move.
XRP needs to close above $1.46 on the weekly chart to confirm the breakout. Intraday wicks above $1.50 do not count.
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XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is testing $1.50 again. The token is up 7.5% over the past week and 5.4% over the past 24 hours, bringing it back to the $1.45 resistance for another breakout attempt. The March 17 rally pushed XRP to $1.60, while the April attempt hit $1.51, but both moves failed to hold, with the price of
So will this attempt stick or fail like the others? The CLARITY Act markup is scheduled for May 14 and Bitcoin is finally showing strength. Here is our verdict on whether XRP holds above the $1.45 resistance this time.
Counterfeiting every time XRP hits $1.50
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On March 17, the SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity, and the price soared to $1.60 with trading volume increasing by 250%, which was its highest level since mid-February. For a few hours, the rally looked like a breakout, but the Federal Reserve stopped it the next day.
The central bank kept rates between 3.50% and 3.75%, raised the 2026 inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.7% and projected only one rate cut for the year. Bitcoin also fell from $74,000 to $70,000 following the news. The price of XRP fell 5.3% to $1.46 in a single session and then fell throughout the week. The following week, XRP was back trading at $1.40, down 13% in seven days.
The second test came on April 17 after the XRP ETFs just recorded their biggest week of 2026 with $55.39 million in inflows. The XRP price rose to $1.51 and then retreated by 4% in the same session. By the end of the week, XRP had retraced 54% of the move, settling near $1.44. That rejection was softer than the one in March, as XRP did not fall back to the $1.28 to $1.30 price range like previous failed rallies.
Why this time could be different
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The lineup of catalysts heading into this test is more complete than anything XRP had in March or April. The CLARITY Act, which would make XRP a digital commodity permanently, is scheduled to be reviewed by the Senate Banking Committee on May 14. That’s four days away and the bill could unlock additional ETF inflows if passed.
Additionally, Ripple had its most important institutional week of the year. On May 6, Kinexys, Mastercard, and JPMorgan’s Ondo Finance completed the first cross-border tokenized US Treasury swap into XRPL, a five-second deal that demonstrated that XRPL is poised to go institutional.
On the other hand, XRP’s chart setup also looks healthier than April. The whale positioning is 73% long, and the cup and handle pattern that has been forming since March is now complete, with a measured target of $1.65-$1.70 if XRP closes above $1.50 on the weekly chart. Bitcoin is above $81,000, up 3.4% over the week; This is a macro tailwind that XRP didn’t have in March, when BTC crashed on the Fed news. Furthermore, XRP ETF inflows reached $81.59 million in April, recovering from a low of $2 million in March.
However, there is a problem. On May 9, the three largest US banking trade groups formally rejected the Tillis-Alsobrooks stablecoin commitment included in the bill. Tim Scott has kept the May 14 date, but the marking faces serious opposition.
Still, what matters here is the bigger picture. Each catalyst alone wouldn’t move XRP, but the regulatory milestone, institutional pilot, and BTC strength are all coming together at the same time, and that’s one of the cleanest setups XRP has had during this consolidation.
Why I Could Still Fake Again
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The $1.45 to $1.47 price range has rejected XRP four times in the last three months. The 100-day EMA is at $1.49, the lower edge of the weekly Ichimoku cloud is at $1.45, and both have capped each rally. Until XRP closes above $1.46 on the weekly chart, intraday wicks above $1.50 do not count. The April 17 rally reached $1.51 intraday, but never closed weekly above $1.46, so it was a fake.
The main reason why the $1.45 resistance remains strong is because about 60% of XRP holders have an average cost between $1.44 and $1.46, creating a supply wall right at that level. Every rally is met with a wave of sellers who break even.
Additionally, 84% of XRP ETF flows are retail, not institutional. The big allocators that commodity classification was supposed to bring are still waiting for the CLARITY Act. The invoice markup is scheduled, but settlement is not guaranteed. The rejection by the banking lobby means Republican members face direct pressure to delay or modify the bill.
So if the committee can’t unify on the Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise, the bill will miss the May 21 Memorial Day recess deadline. This means it would be delayed again, after months of stagnant margins.
Will XRP break out this time?
The verdict depends on the marking of May 14. If the Senate Banking Committee approves the CLARITY Act markup, XRP would have a clear path to close above $1.50 on the weekly chart. The cup and handle pattern targets between $1.65 and $1.70 if XRP stays above $1.50.
However, if the amendments remove the substance or the profit margin does not advance, XRP could return to $1.30, possibly falling to the $1.20 range if the broader market sells off. But if XRP stays above $1.50 and the May 14 profit margin is erased, then it would finally break out of the range it has been stuck in since late February.
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