US stocks have made an impressive turnaround since the Iran war shaved 9% off their value. S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) earlier this year. But given that the war is not over and oil prices are still above $100 a barrel, it could be giving investors some cause for concern.
While I think that’s fair, there is one general factor that gives me confidence to continue buying: corporate earnings. As market leadership has extended beyond megacap tech in 2026, I believe Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEMKT: VTI) is the obvious exchange-traded fund (ETF) to buy right now.
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While there are signs of weakness in the labor market and inflation is rising again, I think the S&P 500 will have a hard time falling too much as long as corporate earnings hold up. But right now they are doing more than holding on. In fact, they are getting stronger.
Consider the following:
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S&P 500 earnings are on track to grow 15% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026. That would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year earnings growth.
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Current forecasts call for S&P 500 earnings growth of 18% in 2026 and another 16% in 2027. Both years are likely to be led by technology sector earnings growth.
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After years of negative growth, small caps are finally starting to see their earnings accelerate. The fourth quarter of 2026 could see 29% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 600 index.
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The S&P 500’s 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 20.9 compared to its five-year average of 19.9. The stock isn’t really that overvalued at current prices.
Given the earnings backdrop, relative valuation, and the fact that the market has moved away from technology in 2026, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF looks like an easy pick for a $500 investment. This ETF tracks the US Total Market CRSP Indexgaining access to the entire US stock market, including more than 3,700 small, mid, and large-cap value and growth stocks. Its low expense ratio of 0.03% allows investors to retain most of the solid returns.
Should you buy shares in the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF right now?
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