I asked if copper was setting a base for a new high in a November 18, 2025 Barchart article, where I concluded with the following:
I expect copper prices to continue their upward trajectory as technical and fundamental factors support the red non-ferrous metal. However, long exposure to copper through the CPER ETF during price corrections has been optimal and that trend is likely to continue. Around the $5 per pound level in November 2025, copper futures could be laying the foundation for even higher highs in 2026.
Nearby COMEX copper futures were trading at $5.016 per pound on Nov. 17, while the three-month LME forward contract was at $10,852 per metric ton. By mid-December 2025, futures were above $5.40 per pound, and LME forwards were above $11,590 per ton.
Tariffs are trade barriers that can cause significant price distortions on commodities located in different regions. In early April 2025, the unprecedented Trump administration “Liberation Day“The tariff announcement caused extreme market volatility across all asset classes, and copper was no exception. While COMEX copper futures rose to new all-time highs in anticipation of the tariffs, LME three-month copper forward contracts remained well below the all-time 2024 price peak. The price differential between copper in the United States in COMEX warehouses and the red metal stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses reached an all-time high, with US copper at a significant premium to LME forward contracts. Copper stocks moved from the LME to COMEX warehouses, which stood at 93,161 tonnes at the end of 2024, rose 388% to 454,638 tonnes as of December 8, 2025. Meanwhile, LME copper inventories fell 38.6% from 271,400 tons at the end of 2024 to 166,600 metric tons on December 8, 2025.
US tariffs caused price distortions, leading COMEX copper futures to hit new all-time highs in March and July 2025 at $5.3740 and $5.9585 per pound, respectively.
The monthly 30-year COMEX copper futures chart highlights copper’s rise to two new record highs in 2025.
Meanwhile, the 30-year LME copper three-month forward chart shows that LME copper forward contracts remained below the 2024 all-time high of $11,104.50 per tonne through October 2025, and rose to a new high of $11,952 in December 2025. While tariffs depressed LME copper prices versus COMEX in early 2025, LME forwards have caught up with COMEX futures, validating the red. general bullish technical and fundamental position of the metal.
While the 30-year charts highlight copper’s bullish trend, the quarterly long-term COMEX futures chart shows copper’s rise and the bullish path of least resistance.
The quarterly chart dating back sixty-six years to 1959 shows that copper has been trending upward since the 2001 low of 60.40 cents per pound. Meanwhile, the pattern of higher lows in 2008, 2016, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 never violated the previous low, which is a very bullish technical trading pattern.
Copper has long been a critical metal for building infrastructure. In recent years, demand for the red metal has increased as it is increasingly required for energy applications in electric vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels, and technological applications in electronics and semiconductor chips.
In a report dated November 28, 2025, JP Morgan forecast a copper shortfall of 330,000 metric tons, with demand outstripping supply. When fundamental supply and demand analysis is aligned with technical analysis, the results can be powerful. Copper’s bullish trend is likely to continue through 2026, and perhaps longer.
Buying copper on price weakness during price corrections has been optimal since the beginning of this century, and I expect that trend to continue in 2026.
The most direct routes for copper exposure are COMEX futures and LME forwards. Trading or investing in futures or forwards requires specialized accounts. Meanwhile, the two ETF products with exposure to copper are the US Copper ETF (CPER) and the Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (DBB). CPER holds a portfolio of COMEX copper futures, while DBB has exposure to LME copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel and lead prices.
At $33.19 per share, CPER had nearly $347 million in assets under management. CPER trades an average of more than 478,000 shares daily and charges a management fee of 0.88%.
At $22.30 per share, DBB had more than $141.60 million in assets under management. DBB trades an average of more than 220,000 shares daily and charges a management fee of 0.77%.
While CPER is a pure play of COMEX copper prices, DBB reflects the price action of copper, along with aluminum, zinc, nickel and lead. Meanwhile, each base metal has idiosyncratic fundamentals that drive its price up or down, but they tend to follow copper prices, as copper is the leader of the LME pack.
The odds favor a continuation of the copper bull market in 2026, but buying on price weakness has been optimal for a quarter century. I expect that pattern to continue in 2026, as even the most aggressive bull markets rarely move in a straight line.
On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht had no (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
