New York — New York (AFP) – Black Friday This may no longer be the retail of years past, when the promise of one-time deals led people to leave Thanksgiving tables at malls as some customers got into fistfights over toys or TVs. But the event still garners enough enthusiasts to make it the biggest shopping day in the United States
For this reason, the day retains its crown as the official start of the holiday shopping season. This year’s launch comes as companies navigate an uncertain economic environment and grapple with the fluctuations of the global economy President Donald Trump Extensive customs duties on imported goods.
Many have absorbed some of the costs and withdrawn Employment Instead of raising prices for customers. Consumer confidence The US economy fell this month to its lowest level since April – when Trump announced his tariffs – In the wake Government shutdown, Poor recruitment And stubborn inflation, according to a report issued by the Conference Board on Tuesday.
However, shoppers remained flexible and willing to spend, at least judging by the bank’s strong quarterly sales reports. Walmart, Best buy and other retailers. But many retail executives also say customers are focused on deals and have been selective in what they buy.
Aaron Boxer, 50, of Greenwich, Connecticut, said he delayed buying a car this year amid concerns about tariffs. He said he’ll be looking for deals on games on Cyber Monday but is also willing to wait until the end to get the best discount.
“I definitely haven’t faced tariffs, and I’m worried about them,” said the founder of an education and life coaching company. “I considered buying earlier this year, but I feel some people made some very poor business decisions expecting the tariffs to have a bigger impact than they did.”
However, analysts and mall executives pointed to strong momentum ahead of Black Friday week.
“We’re seeing a very positive start to the holiday season,” said Jill Renslow, chief business development and marketing officer at the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minn., which plans to offer gift cards and other gifts to the first 250 customers who show up at 7 a.m. Friday. “The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong.”
Traffic at malls heading into Black Friday exceeded pre-pandemic numbers in 2019, Rensloo said.
A forecast by the National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, forecasts a healthy increase in holiday sales. The group estimated that shoppers will collectively spend between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion in November and December, or 3.7% to 4.2% more than last year.
Retailers generated $976 billion in holiday sales last year, or a 4.3% increase from 2023, the group said.
Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks spending across all payment methods including cash, forecast a 3.6% increase in holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24. This compares to an increase of 4.1% last year.
“There’s clearly uncertainty,” said Michelle Mayer, chief economist at Mastercard. “Consumers are clearly feeling nervous. But right now, that doesn’t seem to be changing the way they look for the season.”
Online sales have been strong so far. From November 1 to Sunday, consumers spent $79.7 billion, according to Adobe Analytics. This represented a 7.5% increase from the previous year and was greater than Adobe’s growth forecast of 5.3% for the season.
Tariffs played a role in stores’ strategies and pricing. Many retailers accelerated shipments of some holiday goods before the tariffs took effect while absorbing some additional import costs. But stores still pass on some expenses for purchasing items like toys, which are largely sourced in China.
Market research firm Circana’s retail tracking service examined various subcategories of general merchandise and found that 40% of all general merchandise sold in September saw a price increase of at least 5% compared to the first four months of the year.
Toys, children’s products, household items, and team sports equipment were among the most affected. For example, 83% of games sold in September saw an increase of at least 5%, Circana said.
That number is up from 32% in June, and will rise further in the coming months, according to Marshall Cohen, the company’s senior industry advisor.
Some executives have noticed that retailers are announcing holiday sales. Mall of America’s Rensloo said deals didn’t show up at the mall as early as she expected. But she estimated store tenants increased this week with discounts ranging from 30% to 50%. She thinks they’ll probably go deeper this weekend.
Steven Leibovitz, CEO CBL characteristicswhich manages 85 shopping properties, also noted modest discounts during the holidays.
“I think one of the benefits of the tariffs or the silver lining is that the inventory levels of retailers are smaller, and they have tried to allow themselves to maintain pricing power,” he said.