China’s C919 plane faces turbulent skies amid US-China trade tensions

HONG KONG (AP) — China’s ambition to challenge Boeing and Airbus with its own passenger jet is running into turbulence, with deliveries of finished planes likely to fall well short of its announced target for this year.

The C919 aircraft, a single-aisle airliner intended to rival Boeing’s 737 and Airbus A320, is manufactured by state-owned aircraft manufacturer COMAC. Beijing presents it as proof of China’s technological advancement and self-sufficiency, although it uses many components of Western origin.

Trade frictions with Washington threaten to prevent COMAC from securing critical parts for the program that has been supported by huge subsidies from the Chinese government.

“COMAC faces significant risk due to the volatile political environment, with its supply chains vulnerable to export restrictions and tit-for-tat measures between the United States and China,” said Max J. Zenglein, senior Asia-Pacific economist at think tank The Conference Board.

The C919 has 48 major U.S. suppliers, including GE, Honeywell and Collins, 26 from Europe and 14 from China, according to Bank of America analysts. Trump threatened to impose new controls on exports of “critical” software to China after Beijing imposed stricter controls on rare earth exports.

“Existing critical points are being exploited in the negotiation process between governments,” Zenglein said. “This is likely to continue as critical dependencies have become political bargaining chips.”

Beijing has high hopes for the C919, which will make its first commercial flight in 2023. The mid-sized aircraft is intended to help meet huge domestic demand for new aircraft over the coming decades. China hopes to expand sales beyond its borders and fly globally, including in Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.

COMAC delivered 13 C919s to Chinese airlines last year and only seven as of October this year, despite plans to increase production and deliver 30 aircraft in 2025, according to aviation consultancy Cirium.

China’s largest state-owned airlines (Air China, China Eastern and China Southern) are the only commercial airlines currently flying a total of around 20 C919s.

Trade tensions between the United States and China have “directly affected” C919 delivery schedules, said Dan Taylor, head of consulting at aviation consultancy IBA. For one thing, production plans were disrupted when the United States suspended export licenses for the plane’s LEAP-1C engines around May and resumed them in July, he said.

The U.S.-controlled technology requiring export licensing for the LEAP-1C engines — built jointly by GE Aerospace of the United States and Safran of France — means the C919 engines require U.S. export authorization, Taylor said, making it “intrinsically sensitive to political changes.”

“Reliance on engines and avionics on Western suppliers continues to expose the program to political decisions outside of COMAC’s control,” Taylor explained.

Geopolitical tensions alone are not the only reason why C919 production is slower than expected. The program has been “marked by caution and prioritizing quality and safety, so there may also be some operational reasons for the slower ramp-up in production,” The Conference Board’s Zenglein said.

While “it has always been the goal to reduce dependence on foreign components as quickly as possible” for the C919, Zenglein said, many analysts say it is a challenging process. According to the IBA, China’s alternative engine, the CJ-1000A, developed by state-owned Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC), is still under testing.

Several airlines outside China, including AirAsia, have expressed interest in flying the C919, but a lack of international certification has so far prevented the C919 from flying beyond China. Certifications from U.S. and European Union aviation regulators could take years.

For the C919 to be successful, “it must have three things: good economics, a rapid global product support network and certification from safety agencies,” said Richard Aboulafia, CEO of AeroDynamic Advisory. “Any one of these three alone doesn’t mean much,” he said.

China will need 9,570 new passenger planes between 2025 and 2044, according to Airbus’ latest market forecasts, more than 80% of them single-aisle planes like the C919.

COMAC faces a growing challenge from Airbus, which is expanding its manufacturing capacity in China. A second assembly line is scheduled to begin operation in 2026, allowing Airbus to increase its production of single-aisle A320 aircraft in China, an aircraft model similar to the C919.

Analysts expect it will take years for COMAC to break the Boeing-Airbus duopoly in global aircraft share. In the late 2020s, COMAC will likely grow within China and possibly establish regional exports, IBA’s Taylor said.

In the short term, the lack of international certification will “delay any significant entry into the Western market” for the plane and export control volatility will likely continue to undermine its global expansion plans, Taylor added.