Unlike last year, the top four teams in the final standings will receive first-round byes regardless of whether they win their conference or not. And at the moment, it seems pretty clear that the Big Ten will get two of those byes and the SEC will get the other two.
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After the top four, the race could get really fascinating. With no AFC teams ranked in the first set of CFP rankings and no ACC teams ranked in the top 12, those two conferences will likely occupy the 11th and 12th spots in this year’s rankings.
If you’re the No. 5 seed, you could end up playing a team outside the top 20. If you’re the No. 8 seed, you’ll play the team directly below you in the standings.
That could be a big problem at the end of the season. Nos. 9 and 10 will likely come from the Big Ten and SEC. While Texas Tech looks like a team capable of playing with anyone, a home game against a team like South Florida is a different proposition than one against Notre Dame.
Here’s our latest look at what we think support could look like in December. Our hopes for a 9-3 SEC chaos scenario have officially been dashed, so we’ve taken Texas out of the group. The Longhorns will return if they beat Georgia in Week 12.
No. 1 Ohio State (9-0, projected Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes are very, very consistent. Ohio State has scored 34 points in three of its last four games, 34 or more in five consecutive games and has not allowed more than 16 points in any of those games.
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The race shouldn’t end anytime soon. The Buckeyes are at home against a UCLA team that got its feet back on the ground in Week 12 and then host Rutgers before visiting Michigan to end the season. It’s easy to say that Ohio State hasn’t been tested since Week 1, and yes, the Buckeyes’ schedule turned out to be pretty soft, but Ohio State is also the one that makes it look really easy.
No. 2 Indiana (10-0, overall)
We’re moving toward two undefeated teams in the Big Ten title game unless Michigan defeats the Buckeyes in Week 14. The Hoosiers have games left against Wisconsin and Purdue. They have a combined Big Ten record of 1-12 and that would be 0-13 if Wisconsin hadn’t surprised Washington at home on Saturday.
Yes, Indiana escaped against Penn State on Saturday, but the final drive immediately became iconic in Indiana football history and Omar Cooper Jr.’s catch will be repeated again and again as the rest of the season progresses.
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No. 3 Alabama (8-1, projected SEC champion)
The Alabama-LSU rivalry has become very, very lopsided. The Crimson Tide has won 13 of the last 15 games in the series and has outscored the Tigers by 54 points in the last three games since LSU scored a 32-21 overtime victory in Brian Kelly’s first season with the Tigers.
Now Kelly is the former LSU coach and Alabama is moving toward another appearance in the SEC title game. If the Tide makes it to Atlanta, it will be the first time since 2002 they have been in the SEC Championship Game without Nick Saban on the sidelines.
No. 4 Texas A&M (9-0, overall)
Texas A&M looks like a team that is much better positioned to reach the SEC title game than it was a season ago. The Aggies lost three of their last four games to miss out on a shot at the conference title in 2024. This year, all A&M needs to do is beat one of South Carolina or Texas. The latter could be much tougher than the former, but a win over South Carolina in Week 12 could take some pressure off that Black Friday rivalry game.
Here’s what the projected picture of the College Football Playoffs looks like. (Bruno Rouby/Yahoo Sports)
No. 12 South Florida (7-2, projected U.S. champion) vs. No. 5 Georgia (8-1, overall)
USF should be ranked in the committee’s top 25 on Tuesday after its beating of UTSA at home. The Bulls visit Navy on Saturday in a key game in the AAC race before very winnable games against UAB and Rice to close out the season. USF is fifth in the country in scoring at 42 points per game.
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Georgia did a fantastic job of avoiding a trap game in Starkville with a 41-21 victory. Nate Frazier had 12 carries for 181 yards and Gunner Stockton threw for 264 yards and three touchdowns. Stockton is not going to win the Heisman. But he’s on pace to finish among the top three quarterbacks in the SEC if he isn’t already.
No. 11 Georgia Tech (8-1, projected ACC champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss (9-1, overall)
Georgia Tech is back in our group after the disastrous ACC weekend. The Yellow Jackets should feel lucky to have been left out, as many of the league’s top teams that did play (Virginia, Louisville and Duke) lost. Georgia Tech’s game on Nov. 22 against Pitt could end up being for a spot in the ACC title game. Or even a preview of what the ACC title game will be in December.
Ole Miss had a November cupcake against The Citadel on Saturday.
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No. 10 Vanderbilt (8-2, overall) No. 7 Texas Tech (8-1, projected Big 12 champion)
Yes, Vanderbilt has a legitimate path to the playoffs. The Commodores needed overtime to beat Auburn, but BYU’s loss to Texas Tech allows Vanderbilt to enter the playoffs at 10-2 with wins over Kentucky and Tennessee.
Meanwhile, the Red Raiders have games against UCF and West Virginia to end the season. We can start including them in the Big 12 title game. And one or two losses to the teams ahead of them in the standings will put the Red Raiders in what could be a very important top six.
No. 9 Notre Dame (7-2, overall) at No. 8 Oregon (8-1, overall)
We don’t think Notre Dame will be out of the playoffs the rest of the season unless they lose. The Irish easily defeated Navy and a trip to Pitt in Week 12 will bring ESPN’s “College GameDay.” After Pitt, Notre Dame plays Syracuse and Stanford. It’s hard to imagine how anyone would knock the Irish out of the playoffs with a 3-0 finish, even if you want to question their schedule.
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The Ducks deserve more credit for winning their game against Iowa without their top four receivers. Evan Stewart has been out all season, Dakorien Moore was injured in practice this week, Kenyon Sadiq dressed but did not play and Gary Bryant Jr. was injured while making his only catch of the game. However, we think a Big 12 champion with a loss at Texas Tech could outlast an 11-1 Oregon team by the end of the season.