Fantasy Football matchups to exploit: Players in great spots for Week 12, including Shedeur Sanders as a deep sleeper

Field Marshals

Jacoby Brissett vs. JAX

• The Jags defense had a strong performance against Justin Herbert last week, but overall they have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to the position.

• They had given up more than 25 fantasy points in three straight games before Week 11, where Matt Stafford started the party, but quarterbacks like Geno Smith and Davis Mills bounced back and cleaned up as well.

• Brissett has donned the fantasy Superman cape: since becoming the starter in Week 6, he is QB8 in total scoring and QB4 (!!!) in scoring per game, averaging 21.9 FPPG. I literally can’t believe I just wrote that.

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Sam Darnold vs. TEN

• Three of the last four quarterbacks the Titans faced scored more than 23 fantasy points.

• The Titans are especially weak at outside corner. They have allowed a 71.1% completion rate to outside receivers, ranking last, while also giving up the fifth-most yards. This bodes well for Darnold, who should force feed Jaxon Smith-Njigba all game with reckless abandon.

Bryce Young vs. SF

• The Niners are last in sacks per game and quarterback pressure rate this season. Consistently clean pockets have resulted in opposing quarterbacks torching this Niners defense.

• The aforementioned Brissett was the last of four consecutive quarterbacks to drop 20+ fantasy points against this defense (Stafford, Jaxson Dart, CJ Stroud).

• Young is coming off the best game of his NFL career: His 448 passing yards last week against Atlanta were a career high by a wide margin and he threw three touchdowns for the second time in his career, tying a career high.

DEEP SLEEP: Shedeur Sanders vs. LV

• The pass defense has been up and down, but overall the Raiders have forced the second-lowest QB pressure rate. As a pure pocket passer, this bodes well for Sanders.

• The stat line for Sanders’ first NFL action in Week 11 was atrocious (4 of 16 for 47 yards and a pick), but when you watch the film, it honestly wasn’t as bad as the stats suggest. He played well on a handful of plays where the offensive line didn’t immediately collapse. His ball placement was good and he showed MUCH more juice in his arm strength than Dillon Gabriel.

Runners

Alvin Kamara vs. ATL

• Watch the injury report as Kamara recovers from an ankle injury, but participated on a limited basis in back-to-back practices to start the week.

• If he’s ready, he’ll have a great matchup as the Falcons give up the fourth-most FPPG to the position. Six different running backs have scored more than 11 PPR points in Atlanta’s last five games. This includes a 49-point PPR game for Colts running back Jonathan Taylor and a 39-point game for 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey.

• The 4.1 yards after contact per carry allowed ranks second-worst in the NFL.

• Kamara is coming off one of his best rushing games this year when he ran for 83 yards against Carolina in Week 10.

Rhamondre Stevenson v. CIN

• Obviously, everyone is very happy with TreVeyon Henderson, but if Stevenson (toe) is healthy enough to play, he’s in a great position. The Bengals have given up the most FPPG to opposing running backs this season, including the most total touchdowns.

• The YPC of 5.36 allowed RB to rank third worst and they are last in run rate.

• While Henderson has been explosive and impressive, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Stevenson in a 50-50 split.

Kenneth Gainwell v. CHI

• Jaylen Warren is nursing an ankle injury; posted a DNP and an LP to start the practice week. Even if Warren plays, you think he will be compromised in some way, which means Gainwell should have a good showing in the game.

• The confrontation is impeccable. The Steelers have the fifth-highest outside run rate and the Bears have had great difficulty containing outside runs. According to Next Gen Stats, the 6.01 YPC allowed on outside runs ranks second-worst and Chicago is fifth-worst in terms of rate of explosive runs allowed to the outside.

Wide receivers

Cedric Tillman vs. LV

• Kyu Blu Kelly has been BRUTAL at outside cornerback and as a result, the Raiders have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to outside receivers, including the third-most receptions and yards.

• I previously highlighted the lack of pressure generated by this defensive line, and with Sanders there, his increased arm strength can help unlock Tillman’s route tree.

• According to Reception Perception, Tillman’s two most run routes were digs and slants, where he also posted strong success rates. This pairs well with Sanders. His receiving perception graph shows that Shedeur also favors inbound routes.

• Not counting screens and checks, Sanders targeted players on inbound routes on 32.5% of his throws (only 18.2% on outbound routes).

Jalen Coker vs. SF

• The coconuts get excited! The slot receivers have done some serious work against the Niners. Greg Dortch, of all people, scored a touchdown and recorded 18.6 PPR points last week and slot men like Wan’Dale Robinson (13.6 PPR) and Jaylin Noel (11.3 PPR) have also done reasonably well in recent weeks.

• Overall, the Niners have given up the most FPPG to receivers lined up inside.

Michael Wilson vs. JAX

• With Marvin Harrison Jr. out for another week, let’s revisit the topic with the guy who caught 15 passes for 185 yards last week.

• The Jags have been targeted by outside wide receivers at various times this season, and overall, this secondary has allowed the third-most FPPG to receivers lined up outside.

• The projected total of 48.5 for this game suggests that the points could flow both ways.

Rashid Shaheed vs. TEN

• JSN is in a great situation, but the matchup is also great for Shaheed. The Titans’ 71.1% completion rate allowed to outside receivers ranks last in the NFL. They have given up the fifth-most receptions, yards and fantasy points per game to the outside.

• The Titans are also quite susceptible to giving up big plays. The 10.1 yards per pass attempt to outside receivers ranks second-worst, while the five touchdowns given up on deep passes are tied for third-most. For a deep threat like Shaheed, he could be one big play away from being quite profitable in fantasy this week.

tight ends

Hunter Henry vs. CIN

• Triple H has the pedigree to be a true TE1 this week. This is probably every fantasy analyst’s favorite streaming TE, as the Bengals have been. awful defending the position, giving up the most fantasy points per game.

• Eight different tight ends have scored double-digit PPR points against the Bengals in their last eight matchups.