Why Dividend Growth Could Outperform Tech in the Next Bull Market

Why Dividend Growth Could Outperform Tech in the Next Bull Market
Why Dividend Growth Could Outperform Tech in the Next Bull Market

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It will come as no surprise to anyone who has been watching the market lately that much of the current growth streak is based on the technology industry’s incredible profits. Names like NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) are leading the way, and while an “AI bubble” may or may not be real, it’s hard to ignore how much growth the technology has had lately.

  • Tech sector valuations assume years of impeccable growth after an 18-month rally.

  • Dividend-paying sectors, such as utilities and financials, trade at more attractive valuations than the technology sector.

  • The JP Morgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) offers a yield of 8.38% with diversified exposure beyond technology.

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There is no doubt that the last few years have belonged entirely to the mega-cap technology sector, which is making money hand over fist. This is the hard part about calling out a potential bubble, as FAANG earnings are practically validating their sky-high valuations. Even if they have helped push the market past volatility and inflation, the next phase of the cycle could be in sight.

This is why dividend growth stocks are having a moment in the sun, and while they won’t grab headlines like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) or Meta (NASDAQ:META), they can absolutely be a great way to offset potential risk with mega-cap stocks.

There’s no denying that the tech sector has seen extraordinary gains, but that success comes with lofty valuations. Many mega-cap names now trade price-earnings (P/E) multiples that imply years of near-flawless growth. Now, none of this means that the tech sector’s good fortune is “over,” but it does mean that future returns are not guaranteed to match what we’ve seen over the past 18 months.

On the other hand, there are many dividend-paying sectors that have been overlooked and undervalued. Utilities, financials and consumer staples are just some of the sectors trading at much more attractive valuations for investors. It cannot be argued that these sectors have participated in the same type of demonstrations as the technology sector, but a change in leadership is long overdue.

After a long streak of technological dominance, the next rotation may favor high-quality companies with strong free cash flow and consistent payments.

For the companies in the Dividend Aristocrats index, the idea that they have increased their payouts consecutively, every year, for the last 25 to 50 years is not just a happy accident. No, these companies are increasing dividend payments because they are durable, often recession-resistant, and based on recurring cash flows.

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