Dubai, United Arab Emirates — A ceasefire was reached on Wednesday It raised hopes for a cessation of hostilities Between Iran, Israel and the United States, but many issues remain unresolved.
Reaching a permanent agreement will be key to ending the war It shook the Middle East And global Energy markets. But there are vast differences between US President Donald Trump and… Iran’s surviving leadersIsrael, America’s ally, has its own interests.
Here’s where things stand.
Trump suggested there had been a “regime change” in Iran after US and Israeli strikes killed the 86-year-old supreme leader. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei On the first day of the war and a large number of senior officials and military leaders thereafter.
But Khamenei succeeded him His son Mujtabawho is close to the country’s Revolutionary Guard and is seen as more hostile toward the United States. He is believed to have been injured in the raid that killed his father and has not been seen or spoken in public since the beginning of the war.
The political class dedicated to preserving Iran’s Shiite theocracy remains intact. Many Iranians are angry with their leaders, but there has been no sign of an uprising since the authorities Crushing mass protests In January before the war.
All Iranian uranium is highly enriched He remains in the countryThey are likely buried at enrichment sites bombed by the United States during the 12-day war last June. Iran has not enriched since then, but asserts that it has the right to do so for peaceful purposes and denies seeking nuclear weapons.
Trump said on Wednesday that the United States would work with Iran to “extract and remove” uranium — although Iran has not confirmed this.
Trump, along with Israel, called on Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear program. Iran rejected this in its 10-point proposal to end the war.
Since the war began on February 28, Iran has launched more than 5,000 drones, more than 2,100 ballistic missiles and more than 50 cruise missiles, according to statistics from the Washington-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America, which has close ties to the Israeli military.
Before the war, JINSA estimated Iran’s arsenal at 8,000 to 10,000 ballistic missiles with varying ranges. There is no general estimate of Iran’s stock of drones.
The United States and Israel say they have destroyed or buried several Iranian missile launchers. Israel says it has significantly reduced Iran’s ability to produce and launch missiles but has not eliminated the threat — and Iran has continued to launch attacks.
The US military’s Central Command said it destroyed more than 150 ships, effectively sinking the Iranian Navy. Many Iranian warplanes, helicopters and other equipment were destroyed, along with military installations and missile factories.
But that did not prevent Iran from effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which about a fifth of global oil trade passes, and establishing the Strait of Hormuz. Virtual toll booth To charge states fees for using it.
Israel has defeated armed groups allied with Iran across the region in wars it has sparked Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 Outside the Gaza Strip.
Lebanese Hezbollah is the strongest of its kind. It is still fighting IsraelThe fighting, which Israel says will continue despite the ceasefire. Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have been targeted by Israeli and US airstrikes in recent years, have fired on Israel only a few times during the war and have left shipping in the Red Sea alone. Hamas still controls about half of the Gaza Strip It has not yet been disarmed Under the ceasefire reached with American mediation.
Israel wants Iran to end its support for such groups, something Tehran has refused to do and did not mention in its peace proposal.
Before the war, ships passed freely through the Strait of Hormuz, in the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. Since the war, Iran has reportedly been charging the ship up to $2 million to allow it to pass.
Iran and Oman are working on a proposal to split duties in the waterway, and Tehran insists it will retain military control there, which could give itself a new source of revenue in the face of international sanctions.
Trump says America will ‘hang around’ to ensure traffic gets through. The United States and other countries are likely to oppose the new system, which could constitute a potential flashpoint.
The Arab Gulf states cannot be happy with the outcome of the war.
Iranian attacks caused widespread damage to oil and gas facilities, airports and other sites Their carefully cultivated image As stable commercial and tourist centers. Qatar, one of the world’s largest natural gas producers, said it would take years to restore its production.
The Gulf states’ confidence in Iran has never been deeper, and their confidence that the United States will defend it has been shaken. US bases across the region have been subjected to direct strikes, but there is no indication of any US withdrawal, as Iran has demanded.
Israel has been repeatedly targeted by Iranian fire, but its advanced air defenses and An extensive network of shelters Provided great protection.
prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu Israel says it inflicted heavy losses on Iran, but the United States and Israel were unable to eliminate its nuclear or missile programs. His hoped-for uprising that would overthrow the Islamic Republic has not yet been achieved.
Israel says it has guarantees that the United States will address Iran’s nuclear and missile programs in negotiations. But many Israelis are likely to be disappointed by another inconclusive war It could influence Netanyahu Ahead of elections later this year.