“The team never gets agitated,” Veach said. “We know what every game is going to be like. It’s going to go down to the wire. We’re prepared for that. Our team enjoys that and plays the best it can in those intense situations.”
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At the time, the sentiment provided a defining thesis for the mature phase of a modern NFL dynasty. It now reads as the last gasp of a fading power, the reason behind the final stages of this iteration of the Chiefs. Two weeks later, the Chiefs were annihilated in the Super Bowl. The following season has been an exercise in irritation and shock, until the moment last week when Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and, minutes later, the Chiefs were eliminated from playoff contention.
The Chiefs’ slide could be a hiccup in Mahomes’ dominance or the start of a protracted struggle. The Chiefs will spend the winter conducting an autopsy. They were victims of a number of factors, from the relentless pressure Mahomes faced to the aging of his roster and the compounding cost of so much postseason success. In their search for answers, the Chiefs must also face the fact that their Super Bowl performance last season wasn’t much different in quality from their 6-8 record this season.
There’s a chasm between a Super Bowl appearance and a Week 15 playoff exit. In the NFL, the margins are never as wide as they seem. Going 15-2 last regular season, the Chiefs outscored their opponents by 3.5 points per game, 11th in the NFL. This year, the Chiefs have outscored their opponents by 4.3 points per game, 11th in the NFL and better than likely playoff teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers and Chicago Bears.
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Advanced metrics support the Chiefs’ relatively static performance despite an inferior record. On a per-game basis, the Chiefs improved from last season in expected offensive points added and essentially remained level on defense.
His performance in close games has swung from one extreme to the other. The Chiefs were 11-0 in games decided by eight points or less last season. They viewed their clutch success as a life-changing experience after outscoring the Buffalo Bills by three points in the AFC title game. It has proven unsustainable: They are 1-7 this year in one-possession games.
That variation only occurred because the Chiefs, unable to separate themselves from their opponents, left themselves exposed to it.
“When you lose close games, you look,” coach Andy Reid said. “Sometimes it’s a penalty here. Sometimes it’s a turnover here. It’s always a little thing that determines close games. We’ve had our share of that, and you can’t have that. It could be, one wrong play at the wrong time. We all have a part of it. You have to keep working to fix it.”
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As much as it hurts, the Chiefs will appreciate one aspect of missing the postseason. They played 21 playoff games in Mahomes’ first seven years as a starter, reached five Super Bowls and never came close to the AFC championship game. No other team played more than 13 playoff games in that span. They basically endured 1¼ additional seasons: more than seven months of physical work and exhaustive game planning that other franchises could use in reloading, research and roster management.
“When we talk about Andy not being a dinosaur, the first thing that comes to mind is that they’ve never had an end-of-season meeting on the first Monday,” said former Chiefs assistant coach Brad Childress, a close friend of Reid. “With all the extra time he has now, he could delve even deeper into creativity. What’s better for us? Break the mold a little.”
The Chiefs could use an upgrade to an offense that defenses have caught up to. Reid’s spread scheme, which married principles of the West Coast offense he ran for decades and the Air Raid that Mahomes operated in college, forced opposing defenses to adapt to them. He got the benefit of first innovating with a quarterback who could execute anything he imagined.
However, as defenses evolved to suppress the Chiefs’ style, Kansas City’s offense (whether due to schematic decay or limited talent) failed to adapt. The Chiefs’ dominance created a defensive environment designed to suffocate them, and they did not or could not adapt.
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“As a coach, you have to stay ahead of the curve,” Reid said. “That’s every offseason. That’s the challenge. Sometimes when you’re doing well during the period of time that we’ve been doing well, you’re not drafting very high. You make things work.”
As offenses imitated the Chiefs by spreading the field with speed, defenses shifted toward lighter, faster players. The NFL’s best offenses this season have thrived with a lot of personnel, using extra tight ends and offensive linemen to beat defenses built for speed. Offenses moved under center more frequently, allowing for more and better opportunities for play-action passes.
Mahomes rarely played center this season, and when he did, the Chiefs usually failed. Excluding fourth downs, only the Washington Commanders, Atlanta Falcons and Cincinnati Bengals ran fewer plays under center than Kansas City. When they operated from center on their first three opportunities, the Chiefs ranked 27th in success rate, better than only the Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, Commanders and New Orleans Saints.
For years, Childress said, Reid has used a particular benchmark to measure offensive success: If his team’s quick attempts plus completions added up to 53 or more, he could expect to win. This year, the Chiefs were undefeated when they reached 53, but they reached the mark only four times. They finished 2-8 in the 10 games they didn’t.
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The Chiefs’ inability to control games was due to a shaky offensive line, which lost star guard Joe Thuney and suffered injuries this season. Mahomes’ deep passes fell back, and Childress theorized that it might have been a byproduct of his constant struggles and the hits he took.
“Everyone talks about defending KC’s second play,” Childress said, but too often the instant pass rush spoiled the Chiefs’ actual play. “It starts from the front. They haven’t been up to par, whether it’s injury, talent, whatever.”
In racking up close wins last season, they benefited from good luck but also excelled at the margins. The details they achieved in 2024 became malfunctions this year. Case in point: Their -25.4 expected points added on special teams ranks 28th, ahead of only the Browns, Falcons, Arizona Cardinals and Saints.
The Chiefs’ pillars also aged par excellence. At age 36, tight end Travis Kelce provided spasms of production but lacked explosiveness as a receiver and pass blocker. Defensive tackle Chris Jones dominated in spurts, but not consistently.
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The Chiefs will be a different team when they meet next season. Could that include your coach? Reid, 67, is the second-oldest coach in the NFL behind Pete Carroll, four years older than John Harbaugh, the third. Reid faced questions about his retirement in the run-up to the Super Bowl last season. However, the day after Mahomes tore his ACL, Reid referenced his offseason work several times, sounding like a coach who intends to return.
“I can’t imagine it ending with one out,” Childress said. “I can’t imagine it ending that way. He really enjoys it. He needs very little sleep. He has a great system. He has great assistant coaches. Could I see him with five more? Yes. One more? Yes. But I don’t know if he’ll be out after this.”
For the first time in nearly a decade, Reid will spend January regrouping. He won’t know his quarterback’s availability until the summer: On Wednesday, Chiefs vice president of sports medicine and performance Rick Burkholder said the average return from Mahomes’ surgery would take nine months, give or take two months. Regardless of Mahomes’ status, Reid will face the new challenge of reestablishing his franchise rather than riding on runaway success.
“I’m not happy about it. Neither is anyone here,” Reid said. “We strive for excellence. We try to do that every year. But things happen in this league. There’s a lot of parity and sometimes you end up losing. You have to go back and analyze things. That can be healthy.”
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