GlobalData’s latest report, Indonesia Energy Market Trends and Analysis by Capacity, Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Regulations, Key Players and Forecast to 2035, provides detailed information on the country’s evolving energy landscape. The study analyzes installed capacity (in gigawatts, GW), generation (in terawatt hours, TWh), technology mix and regulatory frameworks during the historical period from 2020 to 2024 and the forecast period from 2025 to 2035. It also evaluates market trends, investment opportunities and key strategies of companies. The analysis is based on GlobalData’s proprietary databases, primary and secondary research, and expert models.
Indonesia is advancing its clean energy transition while maintaining a heavy reliance on thermal generation, supported by significant investments in solar photovoltaic (PV), onshore wind and geothermal energy. The country’s cumulative renewable energy capacity is projected to reach 38.1 GW by 2035, up from 8.4 GW in 2024, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.7% between 2024 and 2035.
Solar PV capacity is expected to increase from 0.9 GW in 2024 to 23.2 GW in 2035, driven by the expansion of floating and utility-scale projects and rooftop solar programs under updated feed-in and net metering mechanisms. Onshore wind capacity will increase from 0.15 GW to 2.6 GW, supported by competitive tenders and hybrid renewable energy developments in Sulawesi and East Nusa Tenggara. Geothermal capacity will steadily expand from 2.6 GW to 5.5 GW, taking advantage of Indonesia’s vast geothermal reserves and fiscal support through the PT SMI Geothermal Fund. Supporting frameworks such as the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), which targets 44% renewable electricity by 2030, and the RUPTL 2025-2034 plan are accelerating the shift to clean energy. Presidential Regulation 112/2022 has further strengthened investment clarity by limiting new coal development and requiring early retirement pathways for existing plants. Additionally, the expansion of inter-island transmission and the deployment of digital network systems are improving integration and reliability.
Despite strong growth in renewables, Indonesia’s energy mix will remain dominated by thermal sources in 2035. This reflects the country’s vast domestic coal reserves, low generation costs, and the critical role of natural gas in balancing intermittent renewables and supporting baseload reliability. Coal-fired capacity is forecast to increase from 55.6 GW in 2024 to 61.4 GW in 2035, while gas-fired capacity will increase from 29.1 GW to 36 GW. For a geographically dispersed archipelago, maintaining thermal stability ensures constant supply across isolated island networks as renewable infrastructure continues to expand.