JPMorgan turns more cautious on Toll Brothers (TOL) growth path to 2026

JPMorgan turns more cautious on Toll Brothers (TOL) growth path to 2026
JPMorgan turns more cautious on Toll Brothers (TOL) growth path to 2026

Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) is included among the 10 Cash-Rich Stocks to Buy Now.

JPMorgan turns more cautious on Toll Brothers (TOL) growth path to 2026
JPMorgan turns more cautious on Toll Brothers (TOL) growth path to 2026

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On December 12, JPMorgan lowered its price target on Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) to $141 from $161 and maintained an Overweight rating following the earnings report. In a research note, the analyst noted fiscal 2026 closings and gross margin guidance that came in below estimates. The company cut its forecasts but maintained a relative buy view on the stock.

For the fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, Toll Brothers exceeded expectations for quarterly orders. At the same time, forecasts for the entire year 2026 were below what the market was looking for. The company reported 2,598 contracts signed during the three months through October, according to a statement issued after Monday’s close. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected 2,475.

Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) also said it expects to deliver between 10,300 and 10,700 homes in fiscal 2026. The Bloomberg consensus estimate stood at 10,843.

Chief Executive Doug Yearley said the results show the company’s luxury business remains differentiated, serving a more affluent shopper who feels less pressure from affordability challenges. More customers opted to upgrade to a new home, even when it meant selling an existing property and giving up a lower mortgage rate. The drop in rates during the quarter, from nearly 7% to less than 6.3%, helped support demand. Builders, including Toll, have leaned more on incentives such as mortgage rate reductions to take buyers out of the bank.

Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) builds, markets and finances residential and commercial properties throughout the United States.

While we recognize TOL’s potential as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater growth potential and carry less downside risk. If you’re looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that’s also benefiting significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the offshoring trend, check out our free report on best short-term AI stock.

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