Omaha, Nebraska — The fate of Nebraska’s “blue dot” — a small but important factor in presidential politics — will take center stage Tuesday when Democratic voters choose a congressional candidate in the state’s high-profile 2nd District.
Omaha area district where Republican US Representative Don Bacon retiresis one of the Democratic Party’s biggest targets this midterm season. It is also a national focus every four years in presidential contests because Nebraska is one of only two states that split their electoral votes. The 2nd District has gone to Democratic presidential candidates three out of five times since 2008 — a “blue dot” in a sea of red.
Three Democrats are seen as the leading contenders in Tuesday’s primary: state Sen. John Kavanaugh, political activist Dennis Powell, and District Court Clerk Crystal Rhodes. Republican Brinker Harding, an Omaha City Council member endorsed by President Donald Trump, is running unopposed on the GOP side.
Kavanaugh, more than anyone else on Tuesday’s ballot, came under attack from both parties.
Some Democratic opponents argue that a Kavanaugh primary win would jeopardize the district’s “blue dot” status because it would leave his valuable state legislative seat, making it easier for Republicans in the Nebraska Legislature to change the law that allows the state to split its electoral votes.
This case has defined the primary contest perhaps more than any other.
The Democrats’ argument against Kavanaugh has nothing to do with his politics or policy.
His opponents and groups supporting them have flooded mailboxes, airwaves and social media warning that if he wins the congressional primary, Nebraska’s Republican governor will appoint a conservative Republican to replace him in the Legislature.
They say the move could give Republicans in the state enough votes to enact a conservative wish list that includes tougher restrictions on abortion and transgender rights.
It could also enable Republicans to pass laws Redistricting in the middle of the session Or change the state’s unusual system of apportioning presidential electoral votes, some Democrats say. Republicans in 2024 failed to pass a bill that would have made Nebraska the 49th state to award Electoral College votes on an electoral basis. Winner takes all basis.
“Our blue dot. We fought hard for this. But if John Kavanaugh goes to Congress, it could all fall apart,” warns one TV ad for the New Democratic Majority PAC.
Emily’s List, the national group that supports women running for office, has put its influence and money behind Powell, calling Kavanaugh’s nomination “a gift to MAGA Republicans.”
Republican groups sent mailers and social media posts claiming Kavanaugh “agreed with President Donald Trump” and displayed Kavanaugh’s photo above a photo of the president, making it appear as if the two were standing together.
“Republicans clearly know that I am the strongest candidate in the general election,” Kavanaugh said. “So they’re trying to hurt me.”
Paul Landow, former executive director of the Nebraska Democratic Party, said the attacks on Kavanaugh show that Democrats and Republicans believe he has the best chance of winning the general election.
He called the “blue dot” attacks disingenuous, noting that Republicans already have a filibuster-proof majority in the Legislature, but are still failing to pass key elements of their agenda because they are unpopular even among GOP lawmakers. The argument that a Kavanaugh win could weaken the state’s “blue dot” also assumes Democrats won’t pick up additional legislative seats this year, he said.
“There are a lot of things that need to be put in place regarding this alleged danger to the ‘Blue Dot,’” Landow said. “It’s just wild speculation.”
While all of the Democratic contenders are citing affordability and opposition to Trump administration policies — from immigration and health care to military operations — the top three contenders have begun attacking each other more aggressively in the days leading up to the primaries.
Candidates and allied groups have spent more than $2.6 million on TV and digital ads since January 1, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact. Almost all of this was done by or on behalf of Kavanaugh and Powell.
Kavanaugh spent about $375,000. Powell’s campaign spent nearly as much — $345,000 — but with the help of groups that support her, the campaign’s ads are overwhelmingly pro-Powell.
Powell co-founded Women Run Nebraska, a political action committee that supports progressive female candidates, and has a decade of Democratic political activism. She has never held office, but said she has been helped by her deep relationships with independents and third-party voters who make up nearly 30% of voters in the district.
“My name recognition has increased dramatically,” Powell said, adding that “people are really connecting with my message.”
Rhodes holds her own after 20 years of public service and running a series of successful local Democratic elections — including that of Omaha Mayor John Ewing, who ousted the longtime Republican last year. Rhodes has raised a fraction of what Kavanaugh and Powell have raised, but she said she deliberately avoids campaign ads and instead covers the city by knocking on doors and personally communicating with voters.
Both Powell and Rhodes have weighed in on concerns that Democrats’ influence in the district will erode if Kavanaugh is elected to Congress.
The winner of Tuesday’s primary will head to a hotly contested general election. Trump won the district in 2016, and the retiring Bacon, who has clashed with Trump, held the House seat for five terms.
Among the polls that will be held on Tuesday is also the race for the US Senate, where the current Republican President, Pete Ricketts, is seeking to win a full term after winning the elections. Date 2023 And 2024 win the special election replace republican Ben Sassi.
Ricketts faces four Republican challengers in the primary, but he’s already done that Looking forward In an expected general election contest against an independent candidate Dan Osbornea veteran industrial and military mechanic It came within 7 points From defeating Republican US Senator Deb Fischer in Her re-election bid in 2024. Competing in the Democratic primary are William Forbes and Cindy Burbank.
In the race for governor, incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Palin faces five primary challengers, while former state Sen. Lynn Walz and recurring candidate Larry Marvin are vying for the Democratic nomination. Marvin has previously run for US Senate four times since 2012.
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Peoples reported from New York.