Global iron ore production is forecast to rise 1.9% in 2025 to reach 2,612.7 million tonnes (mt), up from 2,564.4 million tonnes in 2024. The modest growth comes despite weakening production in China due to weak domestic demand for steel and a prolonged slowdown in construction and infrastructure activity. This shortfall has been largely offset by increased production from India, Australia, Brazil and emerging producers such as the Republic of Guinea, Iran and Liberia.
Looking ahead, global iron ore production is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2026 to 2,728.9 million tonnes. This will be largely supported by the intensification of ongoing projects in the Republic of Guinea and Australia, as well as expansions in Brazil. This will be followed by ongoing expansions in India, Liberia and Iran, which will further support the growth trajectory. Meanwhile, China’s production is expected to remain stable at 2025 levels with marginal growth of just 0.5%.
The Republic of Guinea is an emerging player, with first commercial production from the Simandou (Blocks 1 and 2) and (Blocks 3 and 4) projects in the fourth quarter of 2025, supporting a growing role until 2035. The country’s iron ore production is expected to reach 35.4 million tonnes in 2026, up from 2.9 million expected in 2025, supported by ongoing increases in Simandou. projects.
In Australia, the world’s largest producer, production is forecast to grow 2.6% in 2026, driven by ongoing increases at MRL’s Onslow, Rio Tinto’s Western Range and Fortescue’s Iron Bridge projects. Looking ahead, Australia’s production is expected to rise to 1.1 billion tonnes by 2035, allowing the country to maintain its position as the world’s leading iron ore producer.
In Brazil, growth in 2026 will be driven primarily by Vale, the country’s largest producer, which is targeting 340-360 million tonnes by 2026. Expansions at other major mines, including Gerdau Mining’s Miguel Burnier and CSN Mineracao’s Casa de Pedra, will further boost the country’s production. India, which accounted for 11.3% of global iron ore production in 2024, is expected to be the biggest driver of global supply growth in 2026, with production forecast to rise 3.6% to 318.5 million tonnes. This increase will be supported by strong domestic demand for steel, a significant investment boost and a stable political environment.
India’s drive to expand its steel production capacity to 300 million tonnes by fiscal years 2030-31 underlines the need for reliable availability of iron ore, further solidifying its strategic role. Furthermore, the adoption of green steel technologies, including DRI and hydrogen-based routes, positions iron ore as a key commodity in the country’s long-term decarbonization agenda.
