Robinhood may be pushing to launch its own dedicated prediction market platform, acquiring a 90% stake in derivatives exchange LedgerX, which was previously owned by the now-defunct FTX.
In response, HOOD shares have risen more than 8% to $125 since the market opened on Wednesday, according to Yahoo Finance.
“Robinhood is seeing strong customer demand for prediction markets and we are excited to build on that momentum,” JB Mackenzie, vice president and general manager of futures and international at Robinhood, said in a statement. “Our investment in infrastructure will position us to deliver an even better experience and more innovative products to customers.”
The popular trading app associated with the Kalshi prediction market in the summer to start offering what it calls “event contracts,” which its CEO, Vlad Tenev, said were “really on fire” in a recent earnings call.
However, research firm Bernstein believes the acquisition of LedgerX, which operates under the name MIAX, is a move by Robinhood to launch its own event contracts alongside Kalshi-powered offerings.
“We believe that since HOOD already accounts for more than 50% of Kalshi’s market volumes, HOOD wants to leverage its distribution advantage to claim a larger share of the market’s revenue pool.” bernstein analysts said in a note shared with Decipher.
“By adding its own liquidity from prediction markets, HOOD can further innovate product mix, which will generate more revenue from both increased volumes and take rate,” the analysts added. “We believe HOOD will continue to distribute Kalshi products, but will directly complement more event contracts.”
Robinhood, in partnership with Susquehanna International Group, acquired its 90% stake in Miami International Holdings for an undisclosed fee. Miami International Holdings will retain the remaining 10% of the capital. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026.
Grayscale Files to Launch Zcash ETF After Privacy Coin’s 1000% Price Surge
MIAX has regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to list and settle fully collateralized futures and options on futures and swaps. The company hopes the acquisition will allow it to enter the world of prediction markets.
“The transaction announced today will provide MIAX with access to growing prediction markets on an accelerated basis,” Thomas P. Gallagher, MIAX’s president and chief executive officer, said Wednesday evening. release. “We have evaluated alternatives to facilitate our entry into the prediction markets and believe the current strategic alignment is the appropriate lever to offer institutional and retail futures traders exposure to the growing prediction markets while providing MIAX with potential long-term value.”
HOOD shares are up more than 8% to $125 following the announcement, as they approach their all-time high of $153 set in September as Robinhood sought expand your prediction market offering outside the US