Freight broker RXO said Wednesday that its truckload spot rate index hit a four-year high in the first quarter, with expectations for further increases in the second quarter. Even with tepid transportation demand, the loss of capacity resulting from tighter regulatory oversight of the driver pool is driving up rates sharply.
The RXO (NYSE: RXO) curves report showed that TL spot rates rose 16.5% year-over-year in the first quarter after recording a 5.2% growth rate in the fourth quarter. (The data set captures liner freight rates, excluding fuel surcharges.) This was the highest growth rate since the third quarter of 2021.
The quarterly outlook calls for the index to register a higher growth rate during the second quarter.
“The first quarter is typically the slowest shipping season of the year, however, industry-wide bid rejections were at their highest levels since 2022 and rate volatility outpaced seasonality,” the report says. “That trend continues into the second quarter and, as normal summer shipping seasonality arrives, it’s not likely to slow any time soon.”
SONAR: National Truck Load Index (Liner Transportation Only – NTIL.USA) for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). The NTIL is based on an average of dry van loads booked across 250,000 lanes. The NTIL is a seven-day moving average of liner shipping spot rates excluding fuel. Spot rates increased during the peak season as regulatory restrictions were imposed on the driver pool. Rates remain significantly higher year-on-year In May.
The Charlotte, North Carolina-based company said contract rates rose 2.4% year over year in the first quarter. High spot rates are spilling over into contract rate negotiations.
“However, with spot rates consistently exceeding seasonal baselines, shippers are preparing for a greatly altered freight transportation environment heading into the busy summer months and the second half of 2026.”
Common carriers raised expectations for full-year contract rates during the first-quarter earnings season. Many expected low- to mid-single-digit rate increases entering the year, but now believe market dynamics support mid- to high-single-digit increases. Some traders also flagged the likelihood of double-digit fee increases for transaction-oriented clients who played the spot market during the crisis.
JB Hunt (NASDAQ: JBHT) said at an investor conference last week that it believes (non-dedicated) contract rates will rise 20% over the next two years as increased regulation and higher fuel costs purge low-cost operators from the market.
“We are seeing significant increases in contract and liner freight rates, despite weak carrier demand,” said Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO. “Shippers remain under immense cost pressure, driven by rising labor expenses, higher capital costs, insurance premiums and, of course, diesel prices… If there is any increase in shipping volumes, rates will increase at an even faster rate.”
SONAR: Van Contract Mile Rate Index (VCRPM1.USA) for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). The index shows a 7-day moving average of the initial report of dry van contract rates without fuel and ancillary charges.
RXO improves outlook for second quarter
A Tuesday update from the company said it was “winning accretive spot opportunities” and expects gross profit per load (TL) to exceed normal seasonal trends, remaining “at least stable” with April. (Previously led to a decrease in gross profit per load during May.)