Omaha, Nebraska — OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — As states see it Redrawing congressional district lines In favor of one political party, some politicians warn against it Manipulation attempts It can turn into “deception”, when partisan targets end up helping the opposing party in neighboring areas.
I paid initially By President Donald Trumpstate legislators across the country are discussing and sometimes approving boundary changes in hopes of helping members of their party ultimately decide to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026. Some are finding that it’s not as easy as it seems.
“Trying to win more seats comes with a risk, because in order to win more seats, they have to draw districts more competitively,” said Thomas Brunell, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Dallas, who helped coin the term dummies.
U.S. House districts are usually redrawn once a decade, immediately after the census is taken, but some states allow it to happen more frequently. The US Supreme Court said there are no federal restrictions on political gerrymandering, where districts are deliberately drawn to favor one party.
Nebraska is among a number of states targeted for redrawing congressional district lines in the middle of the decade, with the head of the National Republican Redistricting Fund last week naming Nebraska among its top candidates for the change. Republican Gov. Jim Palin said he supports the idea.
The focus will be on Omaha’s 2nd Congressional District, the “blue dot” with the highest concentration of Democratic voters in Nebraska in a Republican-dominated state.
Republicans hold all three U.S. House seats in Nebraska, including the 2nd District, but the Omaha seat is considered weak. Incumbent Rep. Don Bacon has scored victories in the last two elections He will not seek re-election In 2026, which boosts Democrats’ hopes.
Gerrymandering in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats 2-1 may seem simple, but state Sen. John Kavanaugh said that’s not the case.
Nebraska’s congressional districts already heavily favor Republicans after decades of GOP-led redistricting efforts, said Kavanaugh, a Democrat who worked on Nebraska’s last redistricting effort after the 2020 U.S. Census and is now seeking the 2nd District seat.
“They went to great lengths to make the 2nd District less competitive,” Kavanaugh said.
This summer, Trump urged Republican-led Texas to redistrict so the GOP could win more seats in next year’s elections, setting off an off-season redistricting battle. The Republican Party usually loses seats in Congress in the midterm elections, and the president is trying to buck this trend. Democrats need to win only three seats to control the House of Representatives.
In August, Texas lawmakers Redrawing the state Congressional districts to give Republicans a chance to win five additional seats. California is led by Democrats The United States responded with a redistricting plan aimed at helping Democrats win more seats, though it is still under way It needs voter approval. Leaders in other Democratic-leaning states, such as Maryland, New York and Illinois, have said they are considering their own redistricting plans in the middle of the decade.
Last month, Republican-led Missouri Approved modified areas With the aim of helping the Republican Party win another seat. So did North Carolina’s Republican legislative leaders Announced plans To vote next week on redrawing the state House district map.
Redistricting is still under consideration in several other states. Including Indiana and Kansas, where Republican lawmakers are collecting petition signatures from their colleagues in an attempt to call a special redistricting session in Congress.
Some Republicans remain hesitant, in part because of fears that mid-decade redistricting would backfire. To make Democratic-leaning areas more Republican-friendly, mapmakers would have to convert some Democratic areas to areas currently controlled by Republicans, making them more vulnerable.
And in South Carolina, Republican leaders worry that redrawing the seven U.S. House districts could be dangerous in a state where the GOP hovers at roughly 55% in competitive elections. Republicans usually hold six out of seven seats But I lost one For a period in 2018.
Kansas already tried to make the state’s four counties a GOP congressional delegation when it redrew the lines in 2022 to weaken the Democratic stronghold of the Kansas City area. But democracy Current MP Sharice Davids He still wins easily in 2022 and 2024.
Trump’s efforts to redraw the maps come at a time when his administration’s policies face skepticism among many voters, according to a poll conducted by the Foundation. The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
Creating reliable congressional partisan maps in a large state like Texas is easier because the state has 38 counties, providing plenty of options for adjustment, said Moon Duchin, a professor of computer and data science at the University of Chicago and a redistricting expert.
It’s more difficult in states like Nebraska or Kansas, she said.
“You have fewer lines; you won’t be able to put them out of reach without creating opportunities elsewhere,” Duchin said. “So, yeah, you have to do it very carefully because it can backfire.”
Even in Texas, Republicans saw the effects of deception after they aggressively redrawn political lines in the 2000s, helping to consolidate a GOP majority in the House. This continued until 2018, when A Backlash against Trump In his first term, Democrats flipped two seats that Republicans thought were safe.
“That’s the thing about gerrymandering, where people are still voting, and you have to make guesses about future voting behavior,” Duchin said.
After initial hesitation, Republicans in states including Texas and Missouri came to support redistricting.
That could happen in Nebraska as well, but some key Republican lawmakers remain opposed.
Republican state Sen. Merv Repp said he was not inclined to support such a measure, leaving Republicans with too few votes to overcome a filibuster.
This is consistent with Republicans’ failure last year to pass a bill that would have made Nebraska the 49th state to award its Electoral College votes. Winner takes all basis.
Currently, only Nebraska and Maine allow presidential electoral votes to be broken down by congressional district. Nebraska’s 2nd District votes have gone to Democrats three times in the past two decades — to Barack Obama in 2008, Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024.
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Associated Press writers David A. LEAP in Jefferson City, Missouri; John Hanna in Topeka, Kansas; Jeffrey Collins in Columbia, South Carolina; Gary D. Robertson in Raleigh, North Carolina, contributed.