Finding value in players accessories is one of the most consistent ways of overcoming books. Each week, FTN highlights three accessories identified by our patented model, which simulates each game of NFL 10,000 times. Next, you will see the published line, the FTN projection and the border percentage, followed by context on why this accessory makes sense. To see all the best accessories of the week, be sure to visit our support tool.
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Support bet 1: Jaxson Dart about 172.5 air yards
-114, Fanduel Sportsboch
FTN projection: 237
Edge: 29.8%
Jaxson Dart may have released only 111 yards in his debut last week, but showed impressive signs that better days will arrive. While an adot of 6.3 yards is not high, it is not as if Dart were launching all its passes in or near the scrimmage line. The chargers play coverage 2 to the maximum 51% of the time, the eighth highest rate of the league, and Dart was intelligent to take what the defense gave him underneath. This week faces a defense of the Saints that plays the fourth coverage of the fourth at least 2 custom, which should open it so that Dart attacks the field below. In addition, he is facing a defense of Chargers, the third best pass defense according to DVOA, to the Saints, who are in position 29.
PROPER 2: CAM WARD ABOUT 17.5 FINALIZATIONS
-102, Fanduel Sportsbook
FTN projection: 21.4
Edge: 25.8%
Although Cam Ward is playing bad at this time, he has had to launch a lot because the team is constantly losing. It is 15th in the league in attempts, although its efficiency is obviously a work in progress, occupying the 27th position in the endings. The Titans are helpless by more than one TD, so Ward is likely to be in another negative Gamescript. And the defense of the cardinals, although mostly good against the pass, has allowed the greatest amount of ending throughout the NFL this season. Even if Ward fights again, we hope he arrives here only in volume.
Support bet 3: Joshua Palmer about 14.5 reception yards
-120, Betmgm
FTN projection: 43.9
Edge: 23.5%
Despite having only 16 goals this year, Palmer is still a key piece of the offensive. It runs 60% of the routes, third among WRs in the team. This game is expected to be a high score, with more than 49.5. In this explosive offensive, Palmer can capture more than 15 yards, which makes this line too low for a full -time player.
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Final thoughts
The NFL bet is about finding small edges that add up to the course of the season. FTN’s commitment to the week is just an example of the processable ideas offered by our model. Close the best bet of this week and return every week for the next best play in the NFL free.