Raleigh, North Carolina – Standing behind a downtown bar, Evan Duke smiled as he thought about that You no longer pay federal income tax On the hundreds of dollars in tips he earns on a busy night pouring beer and mixing drinks.
But the 30-year-old said he can’t afford health insurance and is worried about how to make it High costs of rent, food and fuel It affects him and the customers who insert money into the jar at Pearl & risk.
“It’s kind of chaotic right now,” Duke said.
The Duke dilemma is an economic microcosm of Donald Trump’s second presidency. Although the Republican president has tried to put more money into the pockets of the middle class through tax cuts, the benefits are eroding as prices continue to rise, especially during the war with Iran. The latest figures, released on Tuesday, showed the inflation rate Keep going up.
It’s a financial tug of war that shapes people’s lives when they think about the future midterm elections, Which will determine control of Congress during the last two years of Trump’s term.
All of these economic issues were taking center stage in the battleground state of North Carolina and in the race for the United States Senate. Michael Whatley, the Republican candidate and former national party chairman, defends the tax reform approved by Trump. Roy Cooper, the Democratic candidate and former governor, criticizes Trump’s management of the American economy.
Duke, a registered independent, isn’t sure who to support. Like many Americans who vote with their wallets, he expects the decision will be made based on “how things are going at the time.”
“I have to do more research,” he said.
The dividing line is what Trump called the “Big Beautiful Bill,” his signature legislation that cuts taxes but also reduces funding for public programs like Medicaid.
When Whatley recently appeared with Vice President J.D. Vance in Rocky Mount, he said the midterms were about “protecting no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security.”
Some of the claims were exaggerated. For example, it does not repeal the legislation completely Federal overtime fees. But his comments showed how much Republicans want voters to view the legislation as a “tax cut for working families,” as they used to call it.
“I don’t know what it’s like for you, but I trust you can spend your money better than the federal government in D.C.,” Whatley said.
Tracy Brill, 62, a Trump supporter in the audience, said she was prepared to deal with rising costs due to the war.
“The path he took was very careful,” she said, adding, “I think other presidents did not do what they should have done.”
Cooper and Democrats have focused their rhetoric around what they call the “affordability crisis.” They confirm Health care costs Republicans refused to extend the Affordable Care Act’s expanded premium subsidies. They highlight housing and utility prices, rises in consumer goods affected by Trump’s tariffs, and the ripple effects of the president’s war on Iran on everything from fuel and fertilizer costs for farmers to groceries.
“It seems like everything Washington does drives up costs across the board,” Cooper said in Greensboro.
It’s a convenient shift for Democrats. President Joe Biden and his party have previously faced blame for inflation, which Trump capitalized on in his comeback campaign, but Republicans are now bearing the brunt of voter anxiety.
Republicans have a larger margin in the US Senate than in the US House, but Democrats believe economic dissatisfaction gives them the opportunity to take full control of Congress. North Carolina is a prime target along with Maine, Ohio and Alaska. There are even hopes that Iowa and Texas can compete as well.
Democrats have long struggled to win Senate seats in North Carolina, but they believe they have a better chance this year because the Republican incumbent Tom Tillis retires.
Cooper also has a centrist reputation and has already won six statewide elections, including two gubernatorial contests in cycles when Trump won North Carolina. Whatley has deep connections in Republican circles as a former lobbyist and longtime party leader, but he is not yet well known to voters.
Phyllis Aycock, 79, an antique store owner in Nash County, leans toward Cooper even after voting for Trump three times. She said she regretted her recent vote for the president.
“It’s the sweeping effect,” Aycock said, explaining that economic uncertainty and inflation, including rising health insurance premiums, supplement her Medicare and negate Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustments and any tax breaks she received during Trump’s term.
She said she wonders whether Trump “even thinks about the cause and effect of what he does or doesn’t do, and how it directly affects us, and when I say ‘we,’ I certainly mean the middle class, the lower class of workers, the blue collar, those who pay taxes.”
“There seems to be no relief for us, as if it were all for the man who already has everything,” she said.
Aycock and her son, Michael, said they have seen a decline in traffic and purchases at their store, which is located just a few doors down from the law firm where Cooper and his father once worked. The elder Aycock said she doesn’t know Cooper personally but has voted for him before and would consider doing so again.
As for Whatley, she heard nothing but loyalty to Trump. She tightened her lips, then said, “I’m worried he’s just a consenting man. We’ve had enough of those.”
During Cooper’s second term as governor, he convinced the Republican-run Legislature to do so Expand Medicaid – A government insurance program for low-income or disabled adults and children in poor or working-class families – under the Affordable Care Act passed by President Barack Obama. Cooper talks about that program alongside his criticism of Republicans’ refusal to extend pandemic-era subsidies for private insurance plans.
The issue has attracted supporters like Emily Miller, a 43-year-old from Greensboro who volunteers for various voter turnout efforts that benefit Democrats.
“Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act have definitely saved my life,” said Miller, who has physical health issues. As a resident of Kentucky and then North Carolina, she relied on the benefits of the 2010 law between her time as a public school teacher and her return to the workforce as an educational consultant.
When she didn’t have a full-time job, Miller said, she needed expensive medical care, including some inpatient mental health services. Her part-time job at the time would not have covered the costs of private insurance, let alone direct market rates for her treatment, she said.
“I’m so grateful to be back where I have a career again,” Miller said, with employer-based coverage. “I’m an example of exactly what this system is supposed to do. It’s been a bridge. And a lot of people, people who work, struggle this way.”
Miller also doubts people will benefit from Trump’s legislation to cut taxes on overtime wages.
“I had a job that deserved overtime, and I had bosses who would send us home before we got those extra hours,” she said.
However, for Cooper to win, he also needs to energize apathetic voters, including some Democrats.
James Outlaw, a 60-year-old in rural Bertie County, said he will likely vote in November but doesn’t see things getting better no matter the outcome.
“It’s not going to get better,” he said as he filled out his lottery numbers at a local store. “That never happens.”
Behind the bar in downtown Raleigh, Duke was looking forward to the upcoming weekend, which would bring thirstier crowds and, hopefully, more tips.
He said he would appreciate getting “a few thousand dollars” in tax breaks, and said he would “at least look at” Whatley, the Republican nominee. But he’s also thinking about the back-of-the-house workers who don’t get tips and won’t benefit from them.
As for his lack of health insurance, Duke said that wasn’t enough to guarantee his vote for Cooper, even as he remembered the Democratic nominee as a “very good governor.”
“I’m healthy and I can pay the rent,” he said.
This may be the outlook Republicans need as they urge voters to be patient. While speaking in Rocky Mount, Vance assured the crowd that Trump would not let the economy languish.
“He’s constantly hitting the gas,” Vance said. “He wants us to do more.”