TD Cowen has cut his price target on Michael Saylor Strategy’s (Nasdaq: MSTR) giant Bitcoin (BTC) holding company.
In a note to investors on April 9, analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonathan Navarrete attributed the revised target to a “lower bitcoin price” and a reduction in the valuation multiple applied to the company’s projected Bitcoin earnings.
Analysts reduced Strategy’s price target by 20%, from $440 to $350. However, they maintained their Buy rating.
They now project Strategy’s BTC profit at $7.87 billion by fiscal 2026, up from $10.17 billion in 2025.
But its central thesis remains intact that the value of the strategy lies in its ability to convert the market’s appetite for volatility into Bitcoin on an effectively leveraged basis.
TD Cowen’s base case assumes that Bitcoin will reach $140,000 in December 2026, and that Strategy will acquire approximately $5 billion in Bitcoin per quarter. In a positive scenario, Bitcoin would rise to $175,000, a 40% increase from its previous record, with acquisitions exceeding $5 billion quarterly.
The negative scenario is more sobering. Bitcoin could fall to $25,000 by the end of 2026 and acquisitions will be suspended due to market conditions or loss of access to the capital market.
Related: MicroStrategy Breaks into Nasdaq 100, Amplifying Bitcoin’s Reach
TD Cowen was candid about what could derail the thesis. Analysts highlighted Strategy’s high correlation with the price of Bitcoin as a key risk, along with the possibility that the premium built into its share price could erode.
Regulatory or political developments linked to corporate Bitcoin holdings also feature on the list, as do operational risks related to custody, including the potential loss of private keys.
The note also expanded coverage to four smaller digital asset treasury firms, including Sharplink (Nasdaq: SBET), Strive (Nasdaq: ASST), Nakamoto Holdings (Nasdaq: NAKA), and UK-based The Smarter Web Company, assigning Buy ratings to each.
The strategy pivoted from enterprise software to a Bitcoin treasury company in 2020 and hasn’t looked back. The company currently holds 766,970 BTC, and its last purchase was made on April 6.
It has net debt of $5.94 billion and a market capitalization of $41.88 billion, according to figures from TD Cowen.
At press time, Strategy’s mNAV, the ratio of its share price to the net asset value of the Bitcoin it owns, stands at 1.10. This means that the market is still willing to pay a premium above the value of the underlying asset.