A Development of the El Nino phenomenon They are expected to become very strong and will likely dampen the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, but they will not make the potentially deadly storms go away, as federal and state meteorologists predict.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday released its seasonal outlook for the Atlantic Ocean, giving a 55% chance of a below-average season. The agency expects eight to 14 named storms to occur, with three to six of them becoming strong enough to reach hurricane status, and one to three of them intensifying into major hurricanes.
A normal hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven of which become hurricanes and three of which reach major hurricane level, which have wind speeds greater than 110 mph (177 km/h).
Eighteen other groups, private and academic, also forecast what they think the season will be like, with most also calling for a below-average summer and fall. Those Other forecasts On average, there are twelve named storms, of which only five become hurricanes and two of which become major hurricanes. This forecast also calls for the Accumulated Hurricane Energy Index, which takes into account the strength and duration of storms, to reach 80% of normal.
Colorado State University, which pioneered the science of seasonal hurricane forecasting in 1984, He predicts The lowest overall activity since 2015, which was the strongest El Nino in the last 75 years. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert in Colorado, said that forecast will likely be revised to lower numbers in June.
This is happening after nine of the last 10 Atlantic hurricane seasons were above normal or even hyperactive, Klotzbach said. last year It started slowbut then exploded, producing a near-record total of three Category 5 hurricanes, including… Melissa who destroyed Jamaica Susana Camargo, a climate scientist and tropical weather expert at Columbia University and Cuba, said.
Worldwide inflation-adjusted damage from tropical cyclones has risen from an average of $11.4 billion a year in the 1980s to $109.7 billion a year over the past 10 years, with three-quarters of the damage occurring in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, according to insurance giant Munich Re.
Hurricanes and hurricanes are the same weather events, with different names used in different parts of the world.
“We should expect a less active year than we’ve seen recently, and probably well below average,” said Christine Corbusiero, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany. “But again, it only takes one event to cause real devastation and devastation on the U.S. mainland or even in Hawaii.”
Mostly because of the “elephant in the room” which is… El NinoCamargo said.
El Niño is a natural, periodic warming of parts of the central Pacific Ocean that distorts weather patterns around the world, especially during the winter. Scientists have found for decades a relationship between El Niño and below-average hurricane activity in the Atlantic and stronger and increasing storms in the central and eastern Pacific. Many forecasts this year point to a strong, super strong or even record El Niño. During a No Ninathe cooler flip side of El Niño, the Atlantic is generally busier with stronger storms.
There is a 98% chance of an El Niño occurring this summer, and an 80% chance of it being moderate or strong, NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said Thursday.
Atlantic hurricane seasons, when El Nino reaches strong or very strong status, contain two-thirds of the named storms and half of the hurricanes on average from 1991-2020, according to an Associated Press analysis of storm and El Nino statistics.
El Niño combats the formation of Atlantic storms in several ways, Corbusiero said, especially with crosswinds 1.5 to 11 kilometers above the surface “that can blow away the thunderstorms that form” the hurricane.
“Stronger-than-normal wind shear tends to tilt storms as they try to develop,” said University of Albany atmospheric scientist Brian Tang. “It pushes dry air into the storms. It prevents the storms from developing in the first place. If they do develop, it also prevents them from intensifying.”
El Nino reduces the number and intensity of weaker storms, but once a storm reaches hurricane status with 74 mph winds, it “can act as a self-feeding entity” and be less likely to be affected by El Nino’s wind shear, said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster for NOAA’s National Weather Service.
Forecasts for the peak of hurricane season show strong wind shear from the west in the main development zone for the largest and longest-lasting hurricanes, which originate in Africa and develop as they head west over the Atlantic Ocean, Klotzbach said. Fewer such storms occur during El Niño.
In the 15 strongest El Nino years since 1950, 37 named storms, 11 hurricanes and three major hurricanes made landfall in the continental United States, but in the coldest 15 El Nino years, 61 named storms, 31 hurricanes and 10 major hurricanes made landfall on America’s Gulf and Atlantic coasts, according to Klotzbach. He said that the El Niño phenomenon reduced the number of strikes on the Atlantic coast, but its impact was less on the number of coastal areas on the Gulf Coast.
In addition to El Nino, drought conditions in Africa and waters in the Atlantic Ocean that are slightly warmer than normal are contributing to the outlook for a weaker season, Rosencrans said.
El Niño and La Niñas have the opposite effect on storms in the central and eastern Pacific as they do in the Atlantic, so experts expect a busier season in those regions. Jacobs said there is 70% chance The eastern Pacific will have a higher than normal season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts 15 to 22 named storms in the Pacific Ocean, of which nine to 14 will become hurricanes and five to nine will become major hurricanes. The average is 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The main area of storm development in the central Pacific Ocean approaches Hawaii during El Niño, Rosencrans said.
Eastern Pacific storms near Baja Mexico tend to “shift west, affecting fisheries and nothing else,” Corbusiero said. But sometimes it can move east or north and cause serious damage, as in Hurricane Otis She said the 1992 Hurricane Lester hit Mexico in 2023, or the 1992 Hurricane Lester, which caused heavy rains in the southwestern United States.
Hawaii is a chain of small islands in a large ocean that could be threatened. In 1992, an El Niño year when there were few Atlantic storms (although Miami was devastated by… Hurricane Andrew ), hit Hawaii Hurricane Iniki.
Westward toward Asia and India, “the chances of any storm becoming a super hurricane increase dramatically in an El Niño event,” Klotzbach said.
The eastern Pacific hurricane season begins on May 15, and the Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and both end on November 30.
El Niño could make the hurricane season longer, said John Bravander, a meteorologist with the Weather Service in Honolulu. “With water temperatures warming across the region, hurricanes can not only maintain their strength at higher latitudes, but also for longer during the year,” he said.
The state is preparing for hurricanes as parts of Hawaii are still reeling from recent back-to-back storms that caused… Catastrophic floodsGov. Josh Green said.
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Associated Press writer Jennifer Cinco Kelleher in Honolulu contributed to this report.
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