Washington– US military contractors need at least three years to replenish stocks of three major weapons systems It was widely used in the Iran WarAccording to an analysis released Wednesday. In addition to concerns That American forces would have limited firepower in any case Future conflict with China.
Weapons systems are Tomahawk cruise missilesWhich is used to strike targets deep in enemy territory Patriot and THAAD interceptor missiles Which defends against missiles and drones.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a report, “The United States has enough ammunition to confront any reasonable scenario in the Iran war, but the depleted stockpiles have created a window of vulnerability for a possible conflict in the Western Pacific.” Its new report. “So the time needed to rebuild those inventories becomes a major concern.”
China has Declared goal To ensure that its army can bear this Taiwan By force if necessary by 2027, which experts see as more ambitious than the hard deadline. But Chinese President Xi Jinping warned this month that if Washington mismanaged its relations with the self-ruled island, the United States and China would… It could end up in a clash or even in open conflict.
The analytical factors conducted by the think tank in Washington relate to the historic defense budget presented by the Republican Trump administration $1.5 trillion for 2027significantly accelerating spending on advanced munitions that began during the Democratic Biden administration. Although there is a bipartisan agreement in Congress to boost stockpiles, “the problem today is not money; it is time.”
“Expanding production capacity and building these complex systems takes time,” the report said, adding that the window of vulnerability will continue “for several years until stocks return to their previous levels and several more years before they reach the levels desired by war planners.”
Although munitions stockpiles are classified, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said there is enough public information in Pentagon budget materials to estimate production timelines.
President Donald Trump and Defense Minister Pete Hegseth They insisted that the United States was capable of fighting any war. They have pushed defense contractors to speed up munitions production, with Hegseth telling lawmakers last month that Trump-era military spending would help manufacturers double or even triple their capabilities.
Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement that the military “has everything it needs to execute at a time and place of the president’s choosing.”
“We have executed many successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military has a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and interests,” Parnell said.
Some military experts backed down. Pentagon officials “knew the reality of our military stockpiles, and hopefully they would say to someone: Hey, if we go into this fight, even by the most conservative estimates, we’re reducing our stockpiles to a critical level,” said Virginia Berger, a senior defense policy analyst at the watchdog group the Project on Government Oversight and a former Marine officer.
Concerns about dwindling inventories were a major theme Recent congressional hearings. For Democrats, the ammunition supply is a harsh measure against the Iran war, which Trump launched without lawmakers’ approval. Some Republicans claim the problem stems from the United States Patriot missile defense systems sent to Ukraine After the Russian invasion in 2022, though, many of America’s allies are using those systems.
The roots of the impasse can be traced back to the end cold warsaid Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser to the Center for Strategic and International Studies who co-authored the study with research associate Chris H. Park.
after Fall of the Soviet Union Cancian said in an interview that in late 1991, the United States assumed that future wars would be short and regional with no need for large numbers of these advanced weapons. The Pentagon requested relatively low numbers, assuming the Army would not need many of them. Military contractors responded in kind, relying on a relatively small manufacturing footprint to build them.
Cancian said Russia’s war with Ukraine showed that wars can be prolonged and require large stocks of advanced weapons. Meanwhile, American military strategists War maneuvers potential conflicts in the Western Pacific.
“Thinking is starting to change, but it takes time to build inventories,” Cancian said, adding that part of the challenge is accelerating the complex network of supply chains and subcontractors that produce very new components.
Cancian, who oversaw military equipment procurement at the Office of Management and Budget under Presidents George W. Bush, a Republican, and Barack Obama, a Democrat, said President Joe Biden’s administration should get some credit for starting talks with the defense industry, pumping money into the industrial base and ramping up production.
“A lot of people in the Trump administration tend to say everything was terrible until they arrived, and that’s not true,” Cancian said. “Now, it is true that the Trump administration did increase funding.”
The United States has fired more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles at Iran, and it could take until the late 2030s to fully replenish the pre-war stockpile, according to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The report says fewer than 200 Tomahawk missiles are manufactured annually due to small orders in the past. However, manufacturer Raytheon aims to increase its capacity to more than 1,000 per year.
RTX, Raytheon’s parent company, declined to comment on CSIS’s findings because it has not yet seen the report. But RTX pointed to multi-billion-dollar investments to boost production, including expanding facilities in Alabama and Arizona.
As for the air defense systems required, replacing up to 290 THAAD, or High Altitude Air Defense, interceptors that shot down incoming Iranian drones and missiles, could take until the end of 2029, the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates. The refurbishment of more than 1,000 Patriot missiles is scheduled to be completed in mid-2029.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that Lockheed Martin is working to significantly boost missile production for both systems, while THAAD deliveries appear to have been “resequenced to prioritize U.S. needs over those of allies and partners.”
The report said: “The delivery of Patriot missiles poses a dilemma for the United States due to the need to replenish its stockpile, assist Ukraine in defending against Russian missile attacks, and meet the needs of 17 other countries that use the interceptor missile.”
Lockheed Martin said in a statement that it is investing $9 billion through 2030 and is “already achieving tangible results to meet the growing demand for munitions, including a new facility in Alabama announced last week along with more than 20 other facilities across the United States.”
Meanwhile, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said a potential conflict with China is “not all bleak,” as the US military recently flexed its capabilities against Iran, Venezuela and Houthi rebels in Yemen.
“China is fully aware that it has no recent combat experience and that it performed poorly in its last war – against Vietnam in 1979,” the report said. “This difference in experience may maintain deterrent strength until the munitions stockpile is restored.”