This New War May Take This Gold Mining ETF To New Highs Again

• VanEck Gold Miners (GDX): Gained 95% in one year amid geopolitical tensions from the conflict with Iran.

• Gold miners benefit from operating leverage when gold prices rise, but higher oil costs simultaneously compress margins.

• GDX Concentration Risk: Three holdings represent almost a third of the portfolio.

• The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks. Get them here for FREE.

A US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, active airstrikes alongside Israel since late February, and a fragile ceasefire that looks increasingly shaky – the Iran conflict of 2026 has created exactly the kind of geopolitical environment that has historically driven up gold mining stocks. He VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) has gained approximately 95% over the past year and the conditions driving that streak are not letting up.

GDX is not a gold bullion fund. It has stakes in gold mining companies, meaning it behaves more like a leveraged bet on gold than a direct representative of the metal. When gold prices rise, mining companies see their profit margins expand rapidly because their operating costs are largely fixed. That operating leverage is the driving force here and it cuts both ways.

READ: The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named its top 10 AI stocks

The fund was launched in May 2006 and now has approximately $28.2 billion in net assets, with a net expense ratio of about 0.5% and a portfolio turnover rate of just 0.5. Its three main holdings, Newmont (NYSE:NEM) at 12%, Agnico Eagle (NYSE:AEM) at 10.8%, and Barrick Mining (NYSE:B) at 7.6%, together they represent almost a third of the portfolio. The geographical diversification is genuine: the fund covers large North American companies, Australian mid-tier companies, African producers and Asian miners.

The portfolio combines business models. Royalty and streaming companies provide more stable cash flows with less operational exposure than pure miners. That combination gives GDX a slightly smoother ride than a pure mining basket, although it still carries substantially higher volatility than physical gold.

US military operations against Iran, including airstrikes since February 28 alongside Israel and a recently announced naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the failed Islamabad talks on April 12, have kept geopolitical risk premiums high across commodity markets. WTI crude oil has risen to around $95 a barrel, up from around $60 at the start of the year. Gold and energy tend to move together in conflict scenarios, and miners benefit from both sides of that trade: higher gold prices and an inflationary narrative that keeps investors seeking exposure to hard assets.

Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2026 gold target to $5,400 per ounce, while Bank of America forecasts gold will hit $6,000 in spring 2026. Global gold ETF inflows hit $19 billion in January 2026 alone. These are structural tailwinds, not just momentum. A World Gold Council study cited by analysts concluded that “gold’s current strength is driven by unresolved structural risks,” not speculation, pointing to central banks actively diversifying away from dollar-denominated reserves as a lasting driver of demand.

Higher oil prices compress margins even as gold prices rise, which is a real limitation that GDX holders should not ignore.

1. Operating leverage also amplifies losses. GDX carries greater volatility than physical gold, and if the conflict with Iran calms down faster than markets expect, gold could pull back sharply. Mining stocks tend to fall harder than the metal itself in such reversals.

2. Risk of concentration on a handful of names. With nearly a third of assets in three companies, specific corporate events can move the entire fund in ways unrelated to gold prices.

3. Exposure to the cost of energy. Mining consumes a lot of energy. At $91 per barrel, WTI is at its highest level since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine peak, directly impacting mining margins even as gold prices are rising.

For investors who believe geopolitical tension in the Middle East remains structurally elevated, GDX offers similar advantages to stocks tied to gold prices. A ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough could reduce this trade drastically and quickly, so the risk profile here is asymmetric in both directions.

Wall Street is investing billions in AI, but most investors are buying the wrong stocks. The analyst who first identified NVIDIA as a buyback in 2010, before its 28,000% run, just identified 10 AI startups that he thinks could generate huge returns from here. One dominates an equipment market valued at $100 billion. Another is solving the biggest bottleneck holding back AI data centers. A third is a pure play in an optical networking market that will quadruple. Most investors haven’t heard of half of these names. Get the free list of 10 stocks here.