WASHINGTON (AP) — Tuesday marks the country’s first major election day since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, and his leadership and policies dominated the debate in nearly every race, even though the Republican was absent from the campaign trail.
The biggest races are taking place in Virginia and New Jersey, the only states electing governors this year. Trump lost both last fall, but voters in each have a history of electing Republicans to state office. Republican candidates have aligned themselves closely with the president, betting that his big win last year can still offer a path to victory this time, even if the party that occupies the White House often suffers in off-year elections.
Meanwhile, strong Democratic showings could give the party a path back to national relevance, even if its leading candidates have taken very different approaches, from sticking to a moderate line to wholeheartedly embracing government spending to improve the lives of voters.
In New York City, a self-described democratic socialist who has already been the target of Trump’s criticism could emerge as a national star if elected mayor. And California voters will decide whether to redraw the state’s House map, as Democrats seek to counter Trump’s push to reshape the balance of power in Congress.
Here’s what you should look at:
A referendum on Trump
The president did not set foot in either Virginia or New Jersey to campaign with Republican gubernatorial candidates Winsome Earle-Sears or Jack Ciattarelli, but both races will likely be seen as a referendum on Trump’s work so far.
Over the past year, his tariffs have rocked the global economy, his “big, beautiful” budget bill has threatened rural hospitals and health insurance coverage for millions of people, he has enacted massive cuts to the federal workforce, and he has sent the National Guard to several American cities.
The president endorsed Ciattarelli in the race for New Jersey governor, but held only a couple of teleconsultations on his behalf, including one Monday night. Trump also held an election night conference call for Virginia Republican candidates, but did not mention Earle-Sears, speaking primarily in favor of the Republican candidate for attorney general. Early in the campaign, Trump gave Earle-Sears only a lukewarm endorsement, saying he supported the Republican gubernatorial candidate, although he did not use her name. However, Earle-Sears was a fierce defender of Trump and his policies, just as Ciattarelli was in New Jersey.
Despite Trump’s distance, a good night for Republicans would almost certainly be seen as a political victory for Trump and his “Make America Great Again” policies. A bad night for the Republican Party would give Democrats a good, if perhaps fleeting, start heading into the midterm elections that are still a year away.
A new Democratic manual?
Tuesday offers a test of two very different Democratic philosophies espoused by the candidates: toeing a moderate line or fully embracing far-left progressivism. But it also presents a scenario in which both, or neither, could succeed, making it difficult to draw conclusions in the future.
The party’s gubernatorial candidates, New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, have focused primarily on the economy, public safety and health care, distancing themselves from some of the Democratic Party’s far-left policies.
A growing group of Democratic leaders believe the moderate approach is the key to the party’s resurgence after the GOP won the White House and both chambers of Congress last year. Tuesday could be a key indicator of whether they are right.
Both Sherrill and Spanberger have downplayed their support for progressive priorities, including LGBTQ rights and resistance to Trump’s attack on American institutions. Spanberger rarely mentions Trump’s name during the election campaign.
Both also have resumes that could be attractive to the media.
Sherrill spent a decade as an active-duty helicopter pilot for the Navy before entering Congress, while Spanberger is a former CIA case officer who spent years overseas working undercover. They have highlighted their public safety experience as a direct response to the GOP’s attack that Democrats are soft on crime.
Above all, Democrats have focused on rising costs, such as those for food, energy and health care, that Trump has struggled to control.
A new star for Democrats (and Republicans) in New York City
That approach is very different from the New York City mayoral race, where progressives are drawing energy from Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old Muslim state lawmaker who identifies as a democratic socialist and backs sweeping changes to address economic inequality.
His bold agenda and inspiring approach have attracted thousands of volunteers in New York and drawn people like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to campaign on his behalf. It has also spooked some business leaders and voices in the Jewish community, who otherwise support Democrats but oppose some of Mamdani’s past statements about personal wealth accumulation and Israel.
Mamdani has been embroiled in a caustic race against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani. Republican Curtis Sliwa is expecting a big surprise.
And while many progressives are enthusiastic, some Republicans in Washington are also quietly supporting a Mamdani victory. Republican campaign committees have already launched attack ads against more than a dozen vulnerable House Democrats in New York and New Jersey, linking them to Mamdani and his far-left politics.
Trump endorsed Cuomo, posting online Monday night: “Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You should vote for him and expect him to do a fantastic job. He’s capable of doing it, not Mamdani!”
That was after Trump mocked Mamdani almost every day. Republican operatives are also giddy at the opportunity to use it to attack many more Democrats as next year’s midterm elections approach, just as they have done with progressive Democrats like House “squad” members like Ocasio-Cortez and Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar.
The closure effect
Election Day comes amid a federal government shutdown that has now lasted more than a month. Both parties in Congress blame each other and there is no end in sight.
Will it matter?
Virginia is home to more than 134,000 federal workers, many of whom have been laid off or are forced to work without pay. New Jersey has nearly 21,000 federal employees, according to the nonprofit Partnership for Public Service, out of a total of more than 2 million government employees nationwide.
Either number is more than enough to make for a close election.
At the same time, millions of people may be losing critical food assistance from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), offering voters another urgent reason to express their discontent.
Polls show that Republicans, who control Congress and the White House, are receiving slightly more blame than Democrats, although there is a lot of frustration directed at both sides.
Trump has taken the extraordinary step of asking the Senate to eliminate filibuster rules requiring a minimum of 60 votes on major legislation to try to force the government to reopen, even though his party’s leadership believes that is not possible.
A test for Trump’s realignment
While Trump lost Virginia and New Jersey last fall, there were significant shifts to the right in both states. In New Jersey, Trump’s 16-point loss in 2020 narrowed to less than 6 points in 2024.
Those changes were driven by Trump’s growing popularity among traditional Democratic loyalists: union members, black men, Hispanic voters and younger people. Democrats are particularly vulnerable in New Jersey, which has one of the highest percentages of unionized households in the country.
If those pro-Trump trends continue this week, Democrats could be in trouble.
But of course, Trump is not on the ballot. And the Trump coalition (especially lower propensity voters) does not tend to show up in the same numbers in non-presidential years.
Democrats are cautiously optimistic given that Trump did not campaign aggressively in any of the states, a move driven both by the president’s weak position and his allies’ concerns about the viability of Republican candidates, especially in Virginia.
At the same time, the biggest star in Democratic politics, former President Barack Obama, rallied voters in New Jersey and Virginia over the weekend.
Pennsylvania and California and the future of elections
Pennsylvania voters will decide whether three Democratic-backed state Supreme Court justices will serve another term.
The outcome may shape the seven-member high court in the country’s most populous swing state, and may have implications for key cases involving redistricting and voting for the midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race.
Incumbents are not listed by party affiliation. The ballot simply asks voters to cast a yes or no vote. But spending on the race is likely to exceed $15 million, signaling how important it is to Democrats and Republicans in Pennsylvania and beyond.
In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom, frequently mentioned as a 2028 presidential contender, is leading a campaign to redraw congressional maps to give Democrats up to five more seats in the House of Representatives in the next election.
The initiative is the centerpiece of a Democratic effort to counter new Republican maps in Texas and elsewhere that were drawn up to boost the GOP’s chances in next year’s fight for control of Congress. However, for the new maps to count in 2026, voters will first have to approve a yes-or-no ballot question known as Proposition 50.