The AI chip leader launched its long-awaited Blackwell platform late last year.
The previous big release was the Hopper architecture, released two years earlier, and the system generated significant revenue gains.
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About a year ago, NVIDIA(NASDAQ: NVDA) was facing one of the most important moments in its history. The artificial intelligence (AI) chip giant was launching its new Blackwell architecture, a system that was finding “crazy” demand, as CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC at the time. The company announced Blackwell in March 2024 and the fourth quarter of the year was the first to include Blackwell revenue.
Blackwell was going to be the first release of a new routine for Nvidia: releasing chip or full platform updates annually. This new architecture has since helped Nvidia’s profits rise, with Blackwell’s data center revenue increasing 17% in the most recent quarter over the previous. In the report, Huang said: “The AI race has begun and Blackwell is the core platform.” Meanwhile, Nvidia stock has reflected all of this, advancing 40% so far this year.
Now, it’s logical to wonder where Nvidia will be as this story progresses, say 24 months after Blackwell’s release. This is what the story says.
Image source: Nvidia.
First, though, let’s consider Nvidia’s path in the AI market so far. The company has always been a powerhouse in graphics processing units (GPUs), but in its early days it primarily sold these high-performance chips to the gaming market. When it became clear that its uses could be much broader, Nvidia developed the CUDA parallel computing platform to make that happen, and then when the potential of AI emerged, Nvidia did not hesitate to focus on this exciting market.
It turned out to be a fantastic move, as it helped Nvidia secure the top spot in the AI chip market, and the quality and speed of its GPUs have kept it there. All of this has resulted in several quarters of double- and triple-digit revenue growth, as well as high profitability on sales – gross margin has typically exceeded 70% of late.
To maintain this lead, Nvidia committed to continuous innovation, promising to update its chips once a year. The company kicked this off with the launch of Blackwell about a year ago and then released the Blackwell Ultra update a few months ago. The next item on the agenda is the Vera Rubin system, which is scheduled for release at the end of next year.
All of these platforms work together seamlessly, so customers don’t have to wait for a specific one and can instead access Nvidia’s current system and easily move forward with the latest innovations when needed. Still, as mentioned above, demand for the latest systems from large technology clients has been great: they want to win in the AI race and, to do so, they aim to get their hands on the best tools as soon as possible.
So where will Nvidia be 24 months after Blackwell’s release? Clues so far suggest that revenue will continue to grow at double-digit rates, with Wall Street’s average estimates calling for a 33% increase in revenue next year over this year’s levels. And as Rubin launches, demand for that system is likely to increase as customer interest in gaining access to the latest AI technology continues.
But what about Nvidia’s share price? History offers some clues. Before that time, Nvidia’s recent major releases occurred every two years. We can remember the launch of the Ampere platform on May 14, 2020 and the launch of Hopper on September 20, 2022. And each time, over the next 24 months, Nvidia stock soared by triple digits. It rose 120% in the two years after the release of Ampere and more than 700% after the release of Hopper.
NVDA data by YCharts
History shows that Nvidia stock is on track for a triple-digit gain two years after Blackwell’s release. If we use the starting point as Blackwell’s first quarter earnings (this quarter ended January 26, 2025), we can see that the stock is up about 30% so far. But Nvidia still has plenty of time to book more Blackwell sales and potentially see its stock advance by triple digits from its level earlier this year through the first month of calendar year 2027.
As an example, a 100% gain from early 2025 levels would take the stock price to $284, and that would result in a market capitalization of $6.9 trillion by early 2027. This fits into a scenario I wrote about recently, predicting that Nvidia will reach $10 trillion in market value by the end of the decade.
Of course, it’s impossible to guarantee this outcome: any negative geopolitical or economic news, or even an unexpected issue like a decline in technology spending, could impact Nvidia’s revenue and stock performance. But, if these potential risks don’t materialize, history could be right, and Nvidia stock could find itself significantly higher 24 months after Blackwell’s release.
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Adria Cimino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Where will Nvidia be 24 months after the launch of Blackwell? This is what the story says. was originally published by The Motley Fool
