Jeff Hafley’s defense was fourth in the NFL in steals last year, but has only two so far in 2025, good for 31st in the league. Given how much Hafley, his assistant coaches and players talked about their commitment to forcing even more turnovers this season, the dramatic decline has been surprising, but perhaps it shouldn’t be.
The Packers may simply be experiencing the type of regression that often plagues defenses that take the ball away at a high rate from one season to the next.
Since 2015, defenses in the top five in conclusions ranked 13th on average the following year. 18 teams during that time (two per year) fell to the bottom half of the league, and several teams fell from the top five to 31st place.
There has only been one year in which a team did not fall from the top five to at least the bottom half, which occurred between 2020 and 2021, and even then, the Steelers fell from second to 15th place.
Outside of Green Bay, the other teams in last year’s top five, and their current ranking, are as follows: Minnesota (ninth), Pittsburgh (third), Buffalo (18th), Houston (11th).
The Packers have clearly seen the biggest drop, but on average, last year’s top five ranks around 14th at the start of 2025, which follows the standard of the last decade.
Beyond simple regression, the fact that Green Bay faced some of the most interception-averse quarterbacks in the league early in the season may have something to do with its low win total.
Of 39 qualified quarterbacks, Jayden Daniels has the third-lowest turnover-worthy play rate, Dak Prescott is 10th, Joe Flacco is 14th and Jared Goff is 16th.
Every quatterback they’ve encountered has been above average in protecting the ball, and to be fair to the Packers, they got an interception from Flacco and Goff.
Forced fumbles becoming a bigger part of the formula could be a big help for Green Bay, especially considering how intentional opposing offenses are about getting the ball out quickly to nullify Micah Parsons and the Packers’ pass rush.
They are challenging this defense to tackle and therefore giving them opportunities to hit the ball. Some of those attempts should start to give results.
However, in terms of interceptions, which are the most common source of conclusions, it’s not a case of Hafley simply calling interception plays, as Matt LaFleur could try to create an explosive on offense.
The last thing Hafley and LaFleur will want their defensive players to do is start pressing and looking for turnovers.
They have to play good defense and accept that if opponents want to play conservatively, that will limit their gains, but could help the defense prevent points from being scored if they are not being attacked on the field. Even without the big plays, Green Bay ranks ninth in expected points added per game on defense right now.
If Kyler Murray is able to play for the Cardinals this week, the Packers defense may have to be patient once again, as the Arizona QB has the second-lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL.
Over the next two weeks, they will face old friend Aaron Rodgers, who is ranked No. 31, and Bryce Young, who is ranked No. 25. Greater opportunities for splash plays on defense could be on the horizon.
The Packers will no doubt work hard to find ways to get the ball away more regularly, but until opponents start presenting them with more opportunities to do so, they may have to be patient and win in other ways.