AI will eliminate jobs and tax base. – Getty Images/Istockphoto
Let me tell you a story about the United States, money and the type of optimism that you only find in emergency rooms at 3 am
The numbers say that the United States is very good. GDP has just reviewed up to 3.8%, unemployment is low and shares are high. Beautiful. Except that it enters any bar in the United States, and I have done the investigation, and you will find people drinking as if they are examining the apocalypse. This is not paranoia. It is the recognition of patterns.
In 1997, historians William Strauss and Neil Howe published “the fourth turn: an American prophecy”, arguing that the United States loses its moorings every 80-100 years: the revolutionary war, the civil war, the great depression/Second World War. Each crisis period lasted approximately two decades before it was resolved and transformed to the United States.
In his 2023 sequel, Howe said that the United States is in the film where he begins to play shark music. America arrived at the iceberg in 2008 – 79 years toFter the value market accident of 1929, just in time. The maximum catastrophe in this cycle arrives around 2030. The expert of the coverage funds Ray Dalio agreed, which makes it true or demonstrates that the billionaires are reading the same predictions of fatality as the rest of us.
You are five years old to position your money. In the government’s album, that means perhaps two.
This is what nobody mentions in dinners: every time the United States has one of these seizures, it completely changes what money is. Revolutionary war? America invented the Dxy Dollar. Civil war? Backbacks Second World War? Bretton Woods, where the United States convinced the world that its role was as good as gold until Nixon said “Psych!” in 1971.
The old money always dies. The new money always seems brilliant. Then, 80 years later, that money also dies.
This is where it becomes fun, and for fun I mean the terrifying way that special that makes you laugh because crying would be unworthy.
The fourth previous return had the decency to develop for decades. This is happening in hyperspeedes fed online. Anthrope’s CEO, a company that makes artificial brains smarter than real brains, said half of all input level collar works could disappear in one to five years.
This is like the guy who invented the guillotine that told you that he has made some really exciting efficiency improvements.
By 2030, each Baby Boomer will have the retirement age and will wait for the government to maintain its promises, which is adorable in the way to believe in Santa Claus is adorable, except that Santa Claus should not $ 100 billion in non -financed liabilities.
Medicare needs $ 78 billion. Social Security needs $ 23 billion. State pensions need miracles. We were planning to pay for this by fiscal workers, except, surprise, the robots are taking those jobs. It’s like planning to pay your mortgage by winning the lottery, except that you forgot to buy a ticket and the lottery has been discontinued.
History shows us three ways to leave: inflation, predetermined or war. Being American, we go for the triple crown. But digitally, because we are modern.
Some intelligent people saw this coming. Bitcoin Btcusd went from a drug currency to a class of $ 2 billion assets. Gold GC00 has been overcome in silence. Everyone tries to obtain their dollar money and in something that the government cannot print more.
But this is where it becomes beautiful, in the way a fungal cloud is beautiful from distance.
Washington has just block the escape route. Stablecoins moves $ 190 billion per day, more than Visa V and Mastercard MA combined. The largest issuer of Stablecoin, Tether, Usdtusd owns $ 127 billion in treasure bonds, which makes it a larger lender for Uncle Sam than most countries.
But Stablecoins are terrible investments. They are designed to assert exactly a dollar forever, winning anything. The real game is to be the owner of companies such as Circle CRCL that collect rates in each transaction. Think of toll roads, not cars.
The Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Besent, wants to channel $ 3.7 billion through Stablecoins in Treasury during the next decade. That is not monetary policy; It is monetary recruitment.
The world’s central banks know that this game is finishing. China is monopolizing gold. Europe is building independent payment systems. Come what is coming: a monetary restart where the exorbitant privilege of the dollar ends, not through the Chinese conquest but through US fiscal exhaustion, accelerated by AI destroying the tax base.
When the only financial world you have known is to end, you want to possess things that do not require faith in government competence.
The fourth turns are brutal for conventional investment portfolios. But the fourth turn also creates generational wealth for those who recognize opportunities. Morgan, Rockefeller and Carnegie built their fortunes in the chaos of the 1860-1870. Families who bought shares in 1932 or real estate in 1945 created dynasties.
Today’s opportunity lies in the assets that governments cannot degrade or confiscate digitally. Real assets that generate income even when money has no value. The “magnificent seven” technological actions, because someone has to own the robots that replace us. Gold and Silver Si00, who have survived each empire who thought it was different. Bitcoin: Digital Gold that, unlike Stablecoins, cannot be forced to buy treasure bonds at gunpoint.
The fourth tour solves the same way as my New Year resolutions: the complete abandonment of previous promises and a system that no one saw coming.
This is what really happens: whoever has weapons and goods, the new rules of money. The civil war? The union had more weapons and factories, so the state coins died and the green backs were born. Second World War? The United States had all the gold, half of the world’s production and the only unbuttoned factories, so the United States in Bretton Woods made everyone accept dollars like the new gold.
Then, when that became inconvenient, Nixon canceled that agreement faster than a transmission service subscription.
Today the United States has a problem. It has weapons but not the goods. China does everything from its iPhone to its underwear. The United States owes money that would blush a drunk sailor. And the only thing that grows faster than US debt is that AI eats jobs like Pac-Man eating points.
These uncomfortable facts are for three changes:
First, a new monetary system where the dollar shares the upper billing with a basket basket and basic products. It is like being degraded from CEO to co-zo, except that your co-zo has the factory and you owe money.
Secondly, Stablecoins becomes the new financial repression. It is the same scam we achieved after World War II, which forces people to keep bonds paying less than inflation, except that it is now global and digital. Tether has just announced a special stablcoin backed by US dollar called USA ₮. Each digital Dollar USA transaction is a mandatory loan for Uncle Sam, at any rate you want to pay.
Third, the imposition of taxes on wealth, because when you cannot tax the payment checks that do not exist, gravels the house, 401k and that boat in which you live because you sold your home. The politicians who swore in their mother’s tomb will never touch the retirement accounts will explain that Mom would want you to be patriotic.
Five years before this fourth turn it becomes what comes next. At that time, wait for the FED to lose independence faster than a first -year university student with a credit card. The dollar will lose its monopoly as the standard oil, except that it will make everyone poorer. AI will eliminate the work while the savings of the recruit of Stablecoins.
Its wallet should position itself as if it were planning a hurricane, an earthquake and a plague of lobsters, because financially speaking, that is the combined dish we ask.
The things that survive the regime change. Avoid anything that can be “reused” for the greater good. And remember: in times like these, the return of its capital rhythms returns from its capital as rock Beats Smelers.
It has positions in gold, silver and bitcoin.
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