Shippers watching their route guides and budgets face a new reality in 2026: costs are rising even as volumes decline. This is according to the latest quarterly US Bank Transportation Payments Index – Rates Edition. The report, produced in collaboration with DAT Freight & Analytics, showed a freight market in which pricing power is shifting to carriers through capacity discipline rather than demand growth.
Spot rates hit $2.01 per mile in February, recovering from $1.65 in November 2025. Contract rates rose to $2.12 per mile from $1.99 over the same period, marking the fourth consecutive month of increases in both pricing mechanisms.
“What we are seeing in early 2026 is a freight market beginning to rebalance, with spot rates improving modestly while contract prices have remained relatively stable,” said Ken Adamo, head of analysis at DAT Freight & Analytics.
The spot market recorded the sharpest recovery. After bottoming at $1.57 per mile in May 2025, spot liner transportation is up about 28 percent through February 2026, an increase of $0.44 from the bottom. Contract prices followed, but changed much less dramatically, rising from $1.99 to $2.12 per mile over the same period, about a 6.5 percent increase.
The turning point came in December 2025. Spot liner transportation jumped from $1.65 to $1.91 per mile, a 15.76 percent month-over-month increase that coincided with a 14 percent increase in spot activity. Contract liner shipping also rose, rising just under 3 percent, indicating that repricing momentum in transactional markets was filtering into contract results.
“The Rates Edition is a timely warning to shippers and carriers: Pricing power is shifting with tighter capacity, not stronger volume,” said Darlene Laferriere, accounts payable analyst at Charles River Labs. “We are partnering with major carriers and testing budgets as the contract premium is reduced.”
The year-over-year data highlighted how unusual this setup is. From March 2025 to February 2026, spot liner transportation increased by about 23.3 percent, while contract liner transportation increased by about 5 percent. However, volumes moved in the opposite direction, with spot volume falling by about 3.7 percent and contract volume falling by about 22.1 percent.
That divergence is the central story. Prices strengthened even as activity (particularly on the contracted side) remained under pressure. The market behaved as if capacity was managed more rigorously than demand growth. This appears consistent with a supply-driven shift in which carriers protect performance and become more selective about the cargo they accept.